Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sale Sharks | 5.71 | 4.14 | 1.60 |
| Saracens | 2.62 | -5.00 | 7.60 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.54 | 7.93 | -5.40 |
| Gloucester | 2.20 | 5.92 | -3.70 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 1.87 | 3.67 | -1.80 |
| Northampton Saints | 1.58 | 3.99 | -2.40 |
| Harlequins | 1.28 | 3.92 | -2.60 |
| London Irish | 0.99 | -1.65 | 2.60 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| Bristol | -3.64 | -2.43 | -1.20 |
| Bath | -5.68 | -9.15 | 3.50 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -6.54 | -8.76 | 2.20 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 72 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Saracens | Jan 07 | 16 – 19 | 5.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers | Jan 08 | 45 – 26 | -7.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 08 | 35 – 12 | 2.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks | Jan 09 | 16 – 24 | 1.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Bristol | Jan 09 | 23 – 7 | 8.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath | Jan 28 | Sale Sharks | 15.90 |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 29 | Leicester Tigers | 5.50 |
| 3 | Saracens vs. Bristol | Jan 29 | Saracens | 10.80 |
| 4 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester | Jan 29 | Exeter Chiefs | 4.20 |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Harlequins | Jan 30 | London Irish | 4.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »