December 27, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.20 16.79 0.40
Ulster 9.73 9.27 0.50
Bulls 8.20 7.84 0.40
Munster 8.07 9.78 -1.70
Stormers 7.30 7.14 0.20
Sharks 5.23 6.95 -1.70
Edinburgh 3.44 3.58 -0.10
Connacht 1.23 -1.60 2.80
Glasgow 1.04 -0.00 1.00
Lions -1.65 -1.74 0.10
Ospreys -2.00 -0.83 -1.20
Benetton -4.54 -3.68 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -4.87 -7.42 2.60
Scarlets -5.30 -1.23 -4.10
Dragons -9.52 -11.81 2.30
Zebre -17.52 -16.99 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Dec 24 37 – 10 9.40 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Bulls Dec 24 37 – 27 2.30 TRUE
3 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 24 20 – 22 -5.10 TRUE
4 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 24 16 – 10 0.50 TRUE
5 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 25 38 – 5 15.50 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 27 24 – 29 0.40 FALSE
7 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 27 34 – 14 6.00 TRUE
8 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 19 – 20 -6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 31 Edinburgh 6.40
2 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 31 Benetton -9.00
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 01 Sharks 1.00
4 Stormers vs. Lions Jan 01 Stormers 12.90
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jan 02 Cardiff Rugby 1.10
6 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 02 Scarlets 8.20
7 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 02 Ulster 5.70
8 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 02 Leinster 20.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »