Top 14 Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.11 | 6.34 | 1.80 |
| La Rochelle | 6.41 | 6.88 | -0.50 |
| Racing 92 | 5.99 | 4.86 | 1.10 |
| Montpellier | 4.61 | 4.18 | 0.40 |
| Toulon | 3.61 | 4.09 | -0.50 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.55 | 5.27 | -1.70 |
| Clermont | 2.68 | 4.05 | -1.40 |
| Stade Francais | 2.20 | -1.05 | 3.30 |
| Lyon | 2.11 | 3.10 | -1.00 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.40 | 2.87 | -1.50 |
| Section Paloise | -0.37 | -2.12 | 1.80 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -2.12 | -4.26 | 2.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.51 | -2.75 | -1.80 |
| Brive | -6.40 | -4.20 | -2.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 84 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon | Dec 04 | 19 – 7 | 1.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Brive | Dec 04 | 33 – 13 | 16.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Montpellier | Dec 04 | 19 – 14 | 4.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. La Rochelle | Dec 04 | 27 – 14 | 1.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 04 | 34 – 13 | 18.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise | Dec 05 | 26 – 22 | 8.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Racing 92 | Dec 05 | 14 – 31 | 5.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toulon vs. Lyon | Dec 23 | Toulon | 8.00 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Clermont | Dec 24 | Clermont | -2.60 |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux Begles | Dec 24 | La Rochelle | 9.40 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 24 | Montpellier | 15.60 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Dec 24 | Section Paloise | 8.30 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique | Dec 24 | Stade Toulousain | 13.20 |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais | Dec 25 | Racing 92 | 10.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »