Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester Tigers | 4.83 | 7.93 | -3.10 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.43 | 4.14 | 0.30 |
| Harlequins | 3.91 | 3.92 | -0.00 |
| Gloucester | 3.52 | 5.92 | -2.40 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 2.74 | 3.67 | -0.90 |
| Northampton Saints | 1.32 | 3.99 | -2.70 |
| Saracens | 1.10 | -5.00 | 6.10 |
| London Irish | -0.15 | -1.65 | 1.50 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| Bristol | -4.00 | -2.43 | -1.60 |
| Bath | -6.30 | -9.15 | 2.80 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -8.46 | -8.76 | 0.30 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 57 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Harlequins | Dec 03 | 13 – 19 | -5.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 04 | 26 – 26 | -5.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints | Dec 04 | 34 – 19 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 04 | 39 – 17 | 11.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London Irish vs. Saracens | Dec 24 | London Irish | 3.30 |
| 2 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 24 | Sale Sharks | -8.40 |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath | Dec 25 | Exeter Chiefs | 13.50 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester | Dec 25 | Leicester Tigers | 5.80 |
| 5 | Harlequins vs. Bristol | Dec 28 | Harlequins | 12.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »