Top 14 Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.01 | 6.34 | 1.70 |
| La Rochelle | 6.81 | 6.88 | -0.10 |
| Racing 92 | 5.28 | 4.86 | 0.40 |
| Montpellier | 4.64 | 4.18 | 0.50 |
| Toulon | 4.32 | 4.09 | 0.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.36 | 5.27 | -1.90 |
| Clermont | 2.65 | 4.05 | -1.40 |
| Lyon | 2.48 | 3.10 | -0.60 |
| Stade Francais | 1.80 | -1.05 | 2.90 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.63 | 2.87 | -1.20 |
| Section Paloise | -0.61 | -2.12 | 1.50 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -2.49 | -4.26 | 1.80 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.41 | -2.75 | -1.70 |
| Brive | -6.21 | -4.20 | -2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 77 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Rochelle vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 27 | 53 – 7 | 9.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Nov 27 | 35 – 14 | 12.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Brive | Nov 27 | 22 – 6 | 11.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Toulon | Nov 27 | 12 – 17 | 5.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 27 | 23 – 20 | -1.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 28 | 21 – 14 | 0.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Clermont | Nov 28 | 46 – 12 | 7.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon | Dec 04 | Aviron Bayonnais | 1.50 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Brive | Dec 04 | Bordeaux Begles | 16.10 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Montpellier | Dec 04 | Clermont | 4.50 |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. La Rochelle | Dec 04 | Stade Francais | 1.50 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 04 | Stade Toulousain | 18.90 |
| 6 | Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise | Dec 05 | Castres Olympique | 8.70 |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Racing 92 | Dec 05 | Toulon | 5.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »