Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester Tigers | 5.68 | 7.93 | -2.20 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.96 | 4.14 | 0.80 |
| Harlequins | 3.62 | 3.92 | -0.30 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.31 | 3.67 | -0.40 |
| Gloucester | 3.25 | 5.92 | -2.70 |
| Northampton Saints | 1.86 | 3.99 | -2.10 |
| Saracens | 1.10 | -5.00 | 6.10 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| London Irish | -1.27 | -1.65 | 0.40 |
| Bristol | -4.85 | -2.43 | -2.40 |
| Bath | -6.27 | -9.15 | 2.90 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -8.46 | -8.76 | 0.30 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 49 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Leicester Tigers | Nov 12 | 19 – 18 | -8.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons | Nov 13 | 21 – 27 | 18.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish | Nov 13 | 22 – 17 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Northampton Saints | Nov 14 | 45 – 39 | 3.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harlequins vs. Gloucester | Nov 26 | Harlequins | 4.90 |
| 2 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs | Nov 26 | Exeter Chiefs | -7.30 |
| 3 | Sale Sharks vs. Bristol | Nov 27 | Sale Sharks | 14.30 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish | Nov 28 | Leicester Tigers | 11.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »