November 8, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.34 6.34 2.00
La Rochelle 5.75 6.88 -1.10
Racing 92 4.47 4.86 -0.40
Montpellier 4.23 4.18 0.00
Toulon 3.82 4.09 -0.30
Bordeaux Begles 3.59 5.27 -1.70
Clermont 3.46 4.05 -0.60
Castres Olympique 2.70 2.87 -0.20
Stade Francais 2.30 -1.05 3.40
Lyon 2.14 3.10 -1.00
Section Paloise -0.82 -2.12 1.30
Aviron Bayonnais -2.08 -4.26 2.20
USA Perpignan -4.65 -2.75 -1.90
Brive -5.99 -4.20 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. La Rochelle Nov 06 17 – 19 -5.60 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 06 20 – 25 13.20 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Nov 06 26 – 20 5.90 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Nov 06 44 – 20 14.70 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Nov 06 16 – 16 13.50 FALSE
6 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 07 33 – 7 0.50 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Montpellier Nov 07 16 – 26 7.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Castres Olympique Nov 27 La Rochelle 9.60
2 Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 27 Montpellier 12.80
3 Section Paloise vs. Brive Nov 27 Section Paloise 11.70
4 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Nov 27 Stade Francais 5.00
5 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 27 Bordeaux Begles -1.70
6 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 28 Lyon 0.30
7 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Nov 28 Racing 92 7.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »