Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Sale Sharks | 5.87 | 4.14 | 1.70 |
Leicester Tigers | 5.64 | 7.93 | -2.30 |
Exeter Chiefs | 5.27 | 3.67 | 1.60 |
Gloucester | 4.84 | 5.92 | -1.10 |
Harlequins | 3.51 | 3.92 | -0.40 |
Northampton Saints | 3.38 | 3.99 | -0.60 |
Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
Saracens | -0.94 | -5.00 | 4.10 |
London Irish | -1.52 | -1.65 | 0.10 |
Bristol | -4.36 | -2.43 | -1.90 |
Bath | -8.75 | -9.15 | 0.40 |
Newcastle Falcons | -10.01 | -8.76 | -1.30 |
Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 08 | 14 – 50 | -1.90 | TRUE |
2 | Bath vs. Gloucester | Oct 09 | 17 – 21 | -9.80 | TRUE |
3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 09 | 16 – 26 | 6.00 | FALSE |
4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens | Oct 10 | 14 – 34 | -2.80 | TRUE |
5 | Wasps vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 10 | 36 – 40 | 1.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sale Sharks vs. London Irish | Oct 15 | Sale Sharks | 11.90 |
2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps | Oct 16 | Exeter Chiefs | 10.00 |
3 | Gloucester vs. Bristol | Oct 16 | Gloucester | 13.70 |
4 | Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons | Oct 16 | Northampton Saints | 17.90 |
5 | Saracens vs. Bath | Oct 16 | Saracens | 12.30 |
6 | Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 17 | Harlequins | 2.40 |