United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7
Team Ratings for Week 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 16.79 | 16.79 | 0.00 |
| Ulster | 9.99 | 9.27 | 0.70 |
| Munster | 7.27 | 9.78 | -2.50 |
| Bulls | 7.10 | 7.84 | -0.70 |
| Stormers | 6.80 | 7.14 | -0.30 |
| Sharks | 6.07 | 6.95 | -0.90 |
| Edinburgh | 5.43 | 3.58 | 1.90 |
| Lions | -0.21 | -1.74 | 1.50 |
| Connacht | -0.65 | -1.60 | 0.90 |
| Glasgow | -0.66 | -0.00 | -0.70 |
| Ospreys | -1.21 | -0.83 | -0.40 |
| Scarlets | -3.43 | -1.23 | -2.20 |
| Benetton | -4.37 | -3.68 | -0.70 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -6.11 | -7.42 | 1.30 |
| Dragons | -11.30 | -11.81 | 0.50 |
| Zebre | -15.46 | -16.99 | 1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 45 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benetton vs. Bulls | Oct 22 | 22 – 44 | -5.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Connacht vs. Scarlets | Oct 22 | 36 – 14 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Zebre vs. Edinburgh | Oct 22 | 19 – 38 | -15.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers | Oct 23 | 30 – 24 | -9.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Leinster vs. Munster | Oct 23 | 27 – 13 | 13.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Ospreys | Oct 24 | 32 – 25 | -7.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 7
Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow vs. Benetton | Oct 29 | Glasgow | 8.20 |
| 2 | Scarlets vs. Leinster | Oct 29 | Leinster | -15.70 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Stormers | Oct 30 | Stormers | -3.00 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Zebre | Oct 30 | Dragons | 8.70 |
| 5 | Munster vs. Ulster | Oct 30 | Munster | 1.30 |
| 6 | Ospreys vs. Connacht | Oct 30 | Ospreys | 3.90 |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Oct 31 | Bulls | 5.00 |
| 8 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh | Oct 31 | Edinburgh | -7.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David,
You missed the Bulls vs Shark game on 30 Oct?
2 years ago
Yes, thanks for letting me know. I will have to check my fixtures more closely. Usually the only problem I have is with last minute changes (like last week) since I just get them by webscraping and running them through some code. No typing or copying by hand which is error prone.
The missing game is there now.
2 years ago