October 18, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.72 16.79 -0.10
Ulster 9.99 9.27 0.70
Stormers 7.49 7.14 0.40
Munster 7.33 9.78 -2.50
Bulls 6.39 7.84 -1.40
Sharks 6.07 6.95 -0.90
Edinburgh 5.10 3.58 1.50
Lions -0.21 -1.74 1.50
Ospreys -0.56 -0.83 0.30
Glasgow -0.66 -0.00 -0.70
Connacht -1.35 -1.60 0.20
Scarlets -2.73 -1.23 -1.50
Benetton -3.66 -3.68 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -6.80 -7.42 0.60
Dragons -11.95 -11.81 -0.10
Zebre -15.13 -16.99 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 15 0 – 10 -15.10 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Stormers Oct 15 16 – 16 -4.40 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Ulster Oct 15 37 – 39 -6.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Glasgow Oct 16 40 – 12 9.70 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Oct 16 31 – 14 8.20 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Oct 16 53 – 8 10.90 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Bulls Oct 16 31 – 17 4.50 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 16 36 – 12 16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Bulls Oct 22 Bulls -5.50
2 Connacht vs. Scarlets Oct 22 Connacht 5.90
3 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Oct 22 Edinburgh -15.70
4 Lions vs. Glasgow Oct 23 Lions 5.00
5 Sharks vs. Ulster Oct 23 Sharks 0.60
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers Oct 23 Stormers -9.80
7 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 23 Leinster 13.40
8 Dragons vs. Ospreys Oct 24 Ospreys -7.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »