October 4, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

 

 

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.43 2.00 5.40
North Harbour 6.56 2.31 4.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.56 5.87 -0.30
Wellington 5.36 3.58 1.80
Waikato 4.08 2.00 2.10
Bay of Plenty 4.03 0.10 3.90
Auckland 3.88 4.50 -0.60
Tasman 3.60 5.94 -2.30
Otago -0.46 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -1.13 3.63 -4.80
Northland -5.58 -6.68 1.10
Counties Manukau -7.34 -6.32 -1.00
Southland -11.26 -7.01 -4.20
Manawatu -12.41 -5.97 -6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 30 25 – 17 3.60 TRUE
2 Southland vs. North Harbour Oct 01 8 – 66 -11.80 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Taranaki Oct 01 38 – 24 6.60 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 01 21 – 27 -5.20 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Oct 02 31 – 64 -8.00 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Manawatu Oct 02 41 – 24 8.30 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 02 35 – 34 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Auckland Oct 07 North Harbour 5.20
2 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 Wellington 2.30
3 Canterbury vs. Northland Oct 08 Canterbury 15.50
4 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 09 Waikato 2.50

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »