United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7
Team Ratings for Week 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leinster | 16.79 | 16.79 | 0.00 |
Ulster | 9.99 | 9.27 | 0.70 |
Munster | 7.27 | 9.78 | -2.50 |
Bulls | 7.10 | 7.84 | -0.70 |
Stormers | 6.80 | 7.14 | -0.30 |
Sharks | 6.07 | 6.95 | -0.90 |
Edinburgh | 5.43 | 3.58 | 1.90 |
Lions | -0.21 | -1.74 | 1.50 |
Connacht | -0.65 | -1.60 | 0.90 |
Glasgow | -0.66 | -0.00 | -0.70 |
Ospreys | -1.21 | -0.83 | -0.40 |
Scarlets | -3.43 | -1.23 | -2.20 |
Benetton | -4.37 | -3.68 | -0.70 |
Cardiff Rugby | -6.11 | -7.42 | 1.30 |
Dragons | -11.30 | -11.81 | 0.50 |
Zebre | -15.46 | -16.99 | 1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 45 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Benetton vs. Bulls | Oct 22 | 22 – 44 | -5.50 | TRUE |
2 | Connacht vs. Scarlets | Oct 22 | 36 – 14 | 5.90 | TRUE |
3 | Zebre vs. Edinburgh | Oct 22 | 19 – 38 | -15.70 | TRUE |
4 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers | Oct 23 | 30 – 24 | -9.80 | FALSE |
5 | Leinster vs. Munster | Oct 23 | 27 – 13 | 13.40 | TRUE |
6 | Dragons vs. Ospreys | Oct 24 | 32 – 25 | -7.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 7
Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Glasgow vs. Benetton | Oct 29 | Glasgow | 8.20 |
2 | Scarlets vs. Leinster | Oct 29 | Leinster | -15.70 |
3 | Lions vs. Stormers | Oct 30 | Stormers | -3.00 |
4 | Dragons vs. Zebre | Oct 30 | Dragons | 8.70 |
5 | Munster vs. Ulster | Oct 30 | Munster | 1.30 |
6 | Ospreys vs. Connacht | Oct 30 | Ospreys | 3.90 |
7 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Oct 31 | Bulls | 5.00 |
8 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh | Oct 31 | Edinburgh | -7.00 |