Top 14 Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.21 | 6.34 | 0.90 |
| La Rochelle | 7.17 | 6.88 | 0.30 |
| Montpellier | 5.24 | 4.18 | 1.10 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.80 | 5.27 | -0.50 |
| Clermont | 4.22 | 4.05 | 0.20 |
| Racing 92 | 3.97 | 4.86 | -0.90 |
| Toulon | 3.11 | 4.09 | -1.00 |
| Lyon | 2.54 | 3.10 | -0.60 |
| Castres Olympique | 2.19 | 2.87 | -0.70 |
| Stade Francais | -0.58 | -1.05 | 0.50 |
| Section Paloise | -2.20 | -2.12 | -0.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.38 | -2.75 | -0.60 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -3.49 | -4.26 | 0.80 |
| Brive | -3.55 | -4.20 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 28 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA Perpignan vs. Toulon | Sep 24 | 19 – 13 | -0.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Sep 25 | 20 – 15 | -2.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Brive | Sep 25 | 12 – 6 | 12.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Stade Francais | Sep 25 | 33 – 27 | 10.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. Section Paloise | Sep 25 | 43 – 17 | 13.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 | Sep 25 | 37 – 10 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Clermont vs. La Rochelle | Sep 26 | 22 – 13 | 2.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais | Oct 01 | Bordeaux Begles | 11.90 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Oct 02 | Brive | 6.40 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Lyon | Oct 02 | Clermont | 8.20 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Toulon | Oct 02 | Section Paloise | 1.20 |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 02 | USA Perpignan | 0.90 |
| 6 | La Rochelle vs. Racing 92 | Oct 02 | La Rochelle | 9.70 |
| 7 | Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 03 | Montpellier | 4.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »