September 27, 2022

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

 

 

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 8.97 7.93 1.00
Gloucester 5.43 5.92 -0.50
Harlequins 4.18 3.92 0.30
Sale Sharks 4.14 4.14 0.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.41 3.67 -0.30
Northampton Saints 2.94 3.99 -1.00
Wasps 0.98 0.77 0.20
London Irish -1.67 -1.65 -0.00
Bristol -2.41 -2.43 0.00
Saracens -4.51 -5.00 0.50
Bath -9.36 -9.15 -0.20
Newcastle Falcons -10.32 -8.76 -1.60
Worcester Warriors -10.71 -12.27 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 24 31 – 39 -5.40 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. London Irish Sep 25 40 – 36 3.70 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 25 21 – 41 0.60 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Sep 25 41 – 39 -6.40 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 25 39 – 5 1.00 TRUE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Sep 26 43 – 42 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Oct 01 Bristol -3.40
2 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 02 Gloucester 20.60
3 London Irish vs. Bath Oct 02 London Irish 12.20
4 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 02 Sale Sharks 5.20
5 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 02 Leicester Tigers -9.00
6 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Oct 03 Harlequins 5.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »