September 27, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8

 

 

Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.35 2.00 5.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.12 5.87 -0.70
North Harbour 4.79 2.31 2.50
Bay of Plenty 4.64 0.10 4.50
Waikato 4.27 2.00 2.30
Wellington 4.24 3.58 0.70
Tasman 4.05 5.94 -1.90
Auckland 3.44 4.50 -1.10
Otago -0.39 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -0.69 3.63 -4.30
Counties Manukau -6.22 -6.32 0.10
Northland -6.89 -6.68 -0.20
Southland -9.49 -7.01 -2.50
Manawatu -11.90 -5.97 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Auckland Sep 23 38 – 20 5.10 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 24 20 – 14 1.00 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 24 52 – 17 11.30 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Waikato Sep 24 34 – 6 0.00 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 25 35 – 54 -7.80 TRUE
6 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Sep 25 35 – 19 6.90 TRUE
7 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 25 30 – 26 -2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 28 Bay of Plenty 14.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Ben OBrien

    Hi David,

    I just want to say thank you for the ongoing blog, it’s super helpful and has been extremely fruitful.

    Cheers

    2 years ago