September 20, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.83 16.79 -1.00
Ulster 9.81 9.27 0.50
Munster 8.98 9.78 -0.80
Bulls 8.35 7.84 0.50
Stormers 7.14 7.14 0.00
Sharks 6.95 6.95 -0.00
Edinburgh 4.34 3.58 0.80
Ospreys -0.47 -0.83 0.40
Glasgow -0.85 -0.00 -0.80
Scarlets -1.59 -1.23 -0.40
Connacht -2.14 -1.60 -0.50
Lions -2.26 -1.74 -0.50
Benetton -2.84 -3.68 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -6.62 -7.42 0.80
Dragons -12.57 -11.81 -0.80
Zebre -16.03 -16.99 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Glasgow Sep 17 33 – 11 0.80 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Munster Sep 17 20 – 13 -12.70 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Leinster Sep 17 29 – 33 -29.30 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Bulls Sep 18 15 – 31 -5.60 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Sep 18 23 – 23 3.60 FALSE
6 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Sep 18 44 – 6 19.90 TRUE
7 Ulster vs. Connacht Sep 18 36 – 10 14.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Sharks Sep 24 Sharks -18.50
2 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby Sep 24 Glasgow 10.30
3 Leinster vs. Benetton Sep 24 Leinster 23.20
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster Sep 24 Ulster -6.90
5 Bulls vs. Edinburgh Sep 24 Bulls 8.50
6 Stormers vs. Connacht Sep 25 Stormers 13.80
7 Ospreys vs. Lions Sep 25 Ospreys 6.30
8 Dragons vs. Munster Sep 26 Munster -17.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »