Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1
Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 1
Because of the unusual scheduling of games in the NPC, I will be giving a forecast for the Wednesday game on a Tuesday and forecasts for the weekend games after the Wednesday game.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawke’s Bay | 5.73 | 5.87 | -0.10 |
| Tasman | 5.45 | 5.94 | -0.50 |
| Auckland | 5.03 | 4.50 | 0.50 |
| Canterbury | 3.64 | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Wellington | 3.18 | 3.58 | -0.40 |
| Taranaki | 2.88 | 3.63 | -0.80 |
| Waikato | 2.14 | 2.00 | 0.10 |
| North Harbour | 1.78 | 2.31 | -0.50 |
| Bay of Plenty | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| Otago | -1.95 | -1.63 | -0.30 |
| Northland | -5.92 | -6.68 | 0.80 |
| Counties Manukau | -6.00 | -6.32 | 0.30 |
| Southland | -6.52 | -7.01 | 0.50 |
| Manawatu | -7.61 | -5.97 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manawatu vs. Canterbury | Aug 05 | 15 – 62 | -5.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Counties Manukau vs. Otago | Aug 06 | 23 – 22 | -2.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 06 | 32 – 32 | -1.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Auckland vs. North Harbour | Aug 06 | 36 – 26 | 4.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Taranaki vs. Northland | Aug 07 | 11 – 13 | 12.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Tasman vs. Southland | Aug 07 | 27 – 20 | 15.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 07 | 37 – 35 | 6.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manawatu vs. Auckland | Aug 10 | Auckland | -10.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »