Posts from August 2022 (17)

August 30, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 25

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.26 19.20 -5.90
Panthers 12.38 14.26 -1.90
Rabbitohs 8.59 15.81 -7.20
Roosters 8.23 2.23 6.00
Sharks 5.55 -1.10 6.70
Eels 5.04 2.54 2.50
Cowboys 4.43 -12.27 16.70
Raiders 0.47 -1.10 1.60
Dragons -3.09 -7.99 4.90
Sea Eagles -5.16 10.99 -16.20
Broncos -5.56 -8.90 3.30
Titans -6.48 1.05 -7.50
Bulldogs -8.39 -10.25 1.90
Knights -8.86 -6.54 -2.30
Warriors -10.96 -8.99 -2.00
Wests Tigers -11.45 -10.94 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 25 6 – 53 -2.80 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 26 46 – 12 27.90 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 26 14 – 18 9.70 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 48 – 6 4.40 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Aug 27 16 – 0 17.10 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Aug 27 20 – 10 6.60 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 28 22 – 24 -6.00 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Knights Aug 28 36 – 26 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Storm Sep 01 Storm -5.20
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 02 Sea Eagles -0.20
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 02 Roosters 2.60
4 Warriors vs. Titans Sep 03 Warriors 1.00
5 Dragons vs. Broncos Sep 03 Dragons 5.50
6 Cowboys vs. Panthers Sep 03 Panthers -4.90
7 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 Sharks -11.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Sep 04 Raiders -8.90

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4

Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 5.91 2.00 3.90
Auckland 5.36 4.50 0.90
Hawke’s Bay 5.04 5.87 -0.80
Waikato 4.02 2.00 2.00
North Harbour 3.93 2.31 1.60
Tasman 2.99 5.94 -3.00
Bay of Plenty 1.84 0.10 1.70
Wellington 1.40 3.58 -2.20
Taranaki 1.30 3.63 -2.30
Otago -1.17 -1.63 0.50
Northland -4.51 -6.68 2.20
Counties Manukau -5.03 -6.32 1.30
Southland -6.77 -7.01 0.20
Manawatu -11.99 -5.97 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 26 20 – 52 2.40 FALSE
2 Waikato vs. Manawatu Aug 26 53 – 6 15.90 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 27 25 – 23 4.00 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Otago Aug 27 35 – 17 7.90 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Aug 28 13 – 18 11.00 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 28 31 – 25 1.70 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Southland Aug 28 32 – 19 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Aug 31 Canterbury 4.50

 

August 25, 2022

Less creepy than it sounds

News.com.au has the headline New report from Westpac reveals ‘turbocharged’ spending and increased dependence on antidepressant drug, and follows it up with A new report looking at Australia’s spending on health services shows one drug entered the ‘Top 10’ list of prescription medicines for the first time in 14 years.”  The article then goes on about using Westpac card data and a survey of pharmacies. I saw this on Twitter, where someone was outraged that Westpac was using individual drug purchase data this way. They’re not.

There’s literally nothing in the article, or the press release it’s based on, or the report that’s based on to support “increased dependence on antidepressant drug”, and not much to support increased use. The information on sertraline prescriptions didn’t come from the Westpac survey. The news about sertraline entering the top ten prescribed medicines is from the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme (Australia’s version of Pharmac), who (like Pharmac) release this sort of data every year. In the year 2019-2020, sertraline was one of the top ten; it hadn’t been in previous years. This isn’t a new report; it came out in late 2020 and we already have the data for 2020-21.  Moving into the top ten doesn’t necessarily imply higher use, and we can’t tell from these data whether the prescriptions for antidepressants in general increased or whether the relative use of different antidepressants changed.

The actual Westpac survey information is probably interesting if you run a pharmacy in Australia, but it doesn’t have much headline potential.

 

August 23, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 24

 

 

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.10 19.20 -5.10
Panthers 11.89 14.26 -2.40
Rabbitohs 8.32 15.81 -7.50
Roosters 7.39 2.23 5.20
Sharks 5.64 -1.10 6.70
Cowboys 4.70 -12.27 17.00
Eels 2.62 2.54 0.10
Raiders -1.62 -1.10 -0.50
Dragons -2.77 -7.99 5.20
Sea Eagles -3.07 10.99 -14.10
Broncos -3.14 -8.90 5.80
Titans -6.92 1.05 -8.00
Knights -8.42 -6.54 -1.90
Bulldogs -8.47 -10.25 1.80
Warriors -10.47 -8.99 -1.50
Wests Tigers -11.77 -10.94 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 18 22 – 26 0.10 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 19 48 – 4 17.60 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 19 12 – 60 -10.00 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 20 42 – 6 11.20 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Aug 20 6 – 40 -2.10 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 20 72 – 6 16.80 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 21 46 – 26 5.40 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Raiders Aug 21 22 – 28 -3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 25 Eels -2.80
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 26 Panthers 27.90
3 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 26 Storm 9.70
4 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 Raiders 4.40
5 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Aug 27 Sharks 17.10
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Aug 27 Rabbitohs 6.60
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 28 Dragons -6.00
8 Titans vs. Knights Aug 28 Titans 4.50

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 5.25 5.87 -0.60
Auckland 4.79 4.50 0.30
Canterbury 4.49 2.00 2.50
Tasman 4.41 5.94 -1.50
North Harbour 3.72 2.31 1.40
Waikato 2.70 2.00 0.70
Bay of Plenty 2.64 0.10 2.50
Taranaki 1.73 3.63 -1.90
Wellington 0.97 3.58 -2.60
Otago -0.60 -1.63 1.00
Northland -5.04 -6.68 1.60
Counties Manukau -5.83 -6.32 0.50
Southland -6.24 -7.01 0.80
Manawatu -10.67 -5.97 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 19 20 – 34 -5.00 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 20 16 – 10 -1.10 FALSE
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 20 6 – 15 10.40 FALSE
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 20 35 – 27 0.90 TRUE
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 17 – 21 5.80 FALSE
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 32 – 37 -2.70 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 21 17 – 43 -12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 26 Tasman 2.40
2 Waikato vs. Manawatu Aug 26 Waikato 15.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 27 Hawke’s Bay 4.00
4 Auckland vs. Otago Aug 27 Auckland 7.90
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Aug 28 Bay of Plenty 11.00
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 28 Wellington 1.70
7 Northland vs. Southland Aug 28 Northland 3.70

 

August 18, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Auckland 5.35 4.50 0.90
Canterbury 4.92 2.00 2.90
Tasman 4.85 5.94 -1.10
Hawke’s Bay 4.52 5.87 -1.30
North Harbour 3.29 2.31 1.00
Waikato 2.18 2.00 0.20
Bay of Plenty 2.08 0.10 2.00
Wellington 1.90 3.58 -1.70
Taranaki 1.29 3.63 -2.30
Otago -0.83 -1.63 0.80
Counties Manukau -5.31 -6.32 1.00
Northland -5.96 -6.68 0.70
Southland -6.00 -7.01 1.00
Manawatu -9.95 -5.97 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 18 – 13 -3.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 19 Waikato -5.00
2 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 20 Canterbury -1.10
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 20 Wellington 10.40
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 20 North Harbour 0.90
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 Auckland 5.80
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 Otago -2.70
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 21 Hawke’s Bay -12.00

 

Pay gap confusion

From 1News on Twitter — with the text “Do these stats make you mad? Pay attention – for every $100 a man earns in NZ, a woman doing the same job earns $8 less.”

As Graeme Edgeler says, the linked article does not substantiate the claim in the text of the tweet at all. The $8 number isn’t referenced in the article and the 9.2% number doesn’t measure earnings differences for two people doing the same job.  It’s also worth considering a second article about the new income statistics linked from the first article. It gives yet another pair of income numbers for men and women, one where the gap is 25% and is slightly smaller than last year.  On top of that,  the 10% and 9.2% claims in the image seem to be about two different income measures, though it’s not really clear where the 10% is sourced.  I’ll also link the new StatsNZ figures, which 1News doesn’t bother to do.

Let’s start with the gender pay gap.  Stats New Zealand’s indicator for gender pay differences is the percentage difference in median hourly earnings.  They have a nice document from 2015 explaining why they define it this way. It’s not a perfect summary — it’s not going to be; it’s a single number — but it’s what they use.  A gender pay gap of 9.2% means that if median hourly earnings for men were $100 (sadly, no) they would be $90.80 for women.  That’s not $8 less; it’s $9.20 less.  The $8 figure doesn’t seem to come from anything in the article, and it’s an understatement of the gap, which is a bit unusual.

Not only is the figure of $8 apparently wrong, the interpretation is wrong.  The gender pay gap isn’t about comparing income for  the same job. That’s good, because a significant part of gender discrimination in pay comes from women’s jobs being paid less.  Looking at the exact same job would understate the pay gap, and would get you into endless arguments over, eg, whether “captain of the national rugby union team” was or was not the same job for Sam Cane and Ruahei Demant.  The interpretation is also wrong because another reason women earn less money than men is they tend to work fewer hours, and that’s not included in the pay gap.

The second linked article discusses median weekly earnings. It has figures of $1320 for men and $1055 for women, a 25% gap.  The increase in median weekly earnings for the population as a whole was 8.8%, which is the only whole-population percentage increase in either article, so it seems like it should be the basis for “we’re all earning nearly 10% more than last year”.  If you dismiss the ‘all’ as journalistic license, and rephrase as “a typical person” then I suppose 8.8% is nearly 10%, but it’s further from 10% than 9.2% is.

Given how different the gender pay gap is when you compute it in different ways, you might  wonder if international comparisons use StatsNZ’s preferred definition. They don’t.  The OECD restricts to people working full time:  hourly and weekly earnings will have the same gaps, but you’ll miss out the pay gap due to more women working in part time jobs.  By the OECD definition, the New Zealand gender pay gap is 6.7% for employees and 30.8% for self-employed people.

The article linked to the tweet is about a campaign to make large businesses disclose their gender pay gap.  I’m fairly generally in favour of this sort of transparency, but when major news outlets seem to not understand or not care what the number means, publicising it might not be as effective as you’d like.

August 16, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.99 19.20 -7.20
Panthers 11.56 14.26 -2.70
Rabbitohs 8.65 15.81 -7.20
Roosters 4.72 2.23 2.50
Sharks 3.83 -1.10 4.90
Cowboys 3.18 -12.27 15.40
Eels 1.18 2.54 -1.40
Broncos -1.03 -8.90 7.90
Sea Eagles -1.26 10.99 -12.30
Raiders -1.83 -1.10 -0.70
Dragons -3.67 -7.99 4.30
Titans -6.03 1.05 -7.10
Bulldogs -7.04 -10.25 3.20
Knights -8.21 -6.54 -1.70
Warriors -8.95 -8.99 0.00
Wests Tigers -9.11 -10.94 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 11 0 – 16 5.10 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 12 42 – 18 0.90 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 12 0 – 26 -1.60 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 13 32 – 18 3.20 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Aug 13 12 – 36 -11.40 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 13 28 – 10 9.00 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 14 24 – 22 5.40 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Aug 14 44 – 24 -4.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 18 Rabbitohs 0.10
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 19 Cowboys 17.60
3 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 19 Storm -10.00
4 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 20 Eels 11.20
5 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Aug 20 Sharks -2.10
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 20 Roosters 16.80
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 21 Dragons 5.40
8 Knights vs. Raiders Aug 21 Raiders -3.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Auckland 5.35 4.50 0.90
Hawke’s Bay 5.04 5.87 -0.80
Canterbury 4.92 2.00 2.90
Tasman 4.85 5.94 -1.10
North Harbour 3.29 2.31 1.00
Waikato 2.18 2.00 0.20
Bay of Plenty 2.08 0.10 2.00
Wellington 1.90 3.58 -1.70
Taranaki 1.29 3.63 -2.30
Otago -1.35 -1.63 0.30
Counties Manukau -5.31 -6.32 1.00
Northland -5.96 -6.68 0.70
Southland -6.00 -7.01 1.00
Manawatu -9.95 -5.97 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Aug 12 33 – 32 14.20 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Tasman Aug 13 25 – 19 -4.90 FALSE
3 Northland vs. Waikato Aug 13 10 – 16 -5.60 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 13 43 – 10 3.00 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 14 46 – 6 0.10 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Auckland Aug 14 23 – 24 -9.90 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Aug 14 64 – 14 12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 Hawke’s Bay -3.90

 

August 14, 2022

Briefly