NRL Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 14.17 | 14.26 | -0.10 |
| Storm | 11.32 | 19.20 | -7.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.28 | 15.81 | -9.50 |
| Sharks | 3.35 | -1.10 | 4.50 |
| Roosters | 2.59 | 2.23 | 0.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 2.07 | 10.99 | -8.90 |
| Cowboys | 1.90 | -12.27 | 14.20 |
| Broncos | 0.62 | -8.90 | 9.50 |
| Eels | -0.52 | 2.54 | -3.10 |
| Raiders | -1.53 | -1.10 | -0.40 |
| Dragons | -2.91 | -7.99 | 5.10 |
| Bulldogs | -6.09 | -10.25 | 4.20 |
| Titans | -7.16 | 1.05 | -8.20 |
| Knights | -7.27 | -6.54 | -0.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -9.27 | -10.94 | 1.70 |
| Warriors | -9.54 | -8.99 | -0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Broncos | Jul 21 | 14 – 36 | 5.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 22 | 20 – 6 | -4.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Knights vs. Roosters | Jul 22 | 12 – 42 | -3.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Warriors | Jul 23 | 26 – 14 | 13.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Jul 23 | 20 – 10 | 14.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Jul 23 | 24 – 12 | -4.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Jul 24 | 36 – 26 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 24 | 27 – 26 | 16.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Roosters | Jul 28 | Sea Eagles | 2.50 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Storm | Jul 29 | Storm | -15.40 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Panthers | Jul 29 | Panthers | -11.70 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Raiders | Jul 30 | Raiders | -2.60 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 30 | Sharks | 0.10 |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 30 | Broncos | 12.90 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Jul 31 | Knights | 1.80 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Cowboys | Jul 31 | Cowboys | -1.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
I appreciate all the hard work you have done doing these tips. I think South Sydney Rabbits will still win the Sharks.
2 years ago
Predicted margin is 0.1 points so a pretty close game
2 years ago
nice prediction but for the first game today is I think Roosters will gonna win
2 years ago
Agree your tip but doubt on Manly as they lost their 6 key players. need to adjust your tips.
thankyou
2 years ago
A reminder then that I don’t do that. You can though.
My predictions only take into account previous results and home ground advantage.
2 years ago
can you predict how many tries each team will score?
2 years ago
Me, no. Could it be done, yes, but possibly not with any great predictive ability.
You would need game data, say from Champion Data who don’t highlight it on their website but other indications are they have NRL data. From the game data you would develop measures of teams’ attacking and defensive strengths. Using those you would try and model how they and home ground advantage predict tries scored.
There is a lot of work involved developing and implementing the methodology and expense in obtaining data but if betting companies offer odds on tries scored, they are no doubt doing some statistical work along those lines.
Champion Data lists bet365 and the TAB as clients.
2 years ago
All tips are okay from my end but I definitely think that the Bulldogs will win the Knights with 1-12 points margin.
2 years ago
For the 2nd last game for round 20,I think Bulldogs will win .
2 years ago