NRL Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 15.25 | 14.26 | 1.00 |
| Storm | 11.64 | 19.20 | -7.60 |
| Sea Eagles | 6.52 | 10.99 | -4.50 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.30 | 15.81 | -9.50 |
| Roosters | 3.96 | 2.23 | 1.70 |
| Sharks | 3.85 | -1.10 | 5.00 |
| Cowboys | 1.96 | -12.27 | 14.20 |
| Eels | 0.71 | 2.54 | -1.80 |
| Broncos | 0.02 | -8.90 | 8.90 |
| Raiders | -0.73 | -1.10 | 0.40 |
| Dragons | -6.88 | -7.99 | 1.10 |
| Titans | -7.55 | 1.05 | -8.60 |
| Bulldogs | -7.64 | -10.25 | 2.60 |
| Knights | -9.13 | -6.54 | -2.60 |
| Warriors | -9.37 | -8.99 | -0.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.90 | -10.94 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 136 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Jul 15 | 12 – 26 | 3.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Eels vs. Warriors | Jul 15 | 28 – 18 | 16.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Jul 16 | 54 – 26 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Knights | Jul 16 | 42 – 12 | 17.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Broncos | Jul 16 | 12 – 16 | -4.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | Jul 17 | 16 – 18 | -25.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Raiders | Jul 17 | 16 – 20 | 18.00 | FALSE |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 17 | 28 – 36 | -11.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Broncos | Jul 21 | Eels | 3.70 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 22 | Sea Eagles | -10.40 |
| 3 | Knights vs. Roosters | Jul 22 | Roosters | -10.10 |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Warriors | Jul 23 | Raiders | 14.10 |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Jul 23 | Panthers | 14.40 |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Jul 23 | Storm | -2.30 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Jul 24 | Bulldogs | 2.90 |
| 8 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 24 | Cowboys | 15.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi please can you predict the scores out for round 19 thankyou
2 years ago