NRL Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 16.64 | 14.26 | 2.40 |
| Storm | 14.78 | 19.20 | -4.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.57 | 15.81 | -9.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 5.71 | 10.99 | -5.30 |
| Cowboys | 2.99 | -12.27 | 15.30 |
| Roosters | 2.98 | 2.23 | 0.70 |
| Eels | 1.48 | 2.54 | -1.10 |
| Sharks | 0.96 | -1.10 | 2.10 |
| Broncos | -0.40 | -8.90 | 8.50 |
| Raiders | -2.02 | -1.10 | -0.90 |
| Dragons | -5.42 | -7.99 | 2.60 |
| Titans | -7.60 | 1.05 | -8.60 |
| Bulldogs | -7.92 | -10.25 | 2.30 |
| Knights | -8.31 | -6.54 | -1.80 |
| Warriors | -9.90 | -8.99 | -0.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -12.53 | -10.94 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | Jun 30 | 36 – 30 | -7.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Titans | Jul 01 | 38 – 12 | -0.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Jul 01 | 26 – 18 | 17.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Sharks | Jul 02 | 6 – 18 | -4.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Jul 02 | 40 – 26 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Eels | Jul 02 | 30 – 12 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 03 | 22 – 2 | 6.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Raiders | Jul 03 | 12 – 10 | -0.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Storm | Jul 07 | Storm | -10.80 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 08 | Rabbitohs | -11.90 |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Jul 09 | Eels | -11.00 |
| 4 | Broncos vs. Dragons | Jul 10 | Broncos | 8.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi, David.
Can you please help me predict the total match points for the teams.
Thanks.
2 years ago
No. That is actually a difficult thing to do if I understand correctly what you are asking.
I have mentioned previously that the distribution of margins is heavy-tailed. The distribution is essentially symmetric however. The distribution of individual scores in a match is not even symmetric: it is bounded below by zero and for modelling purposes unbounded above.
Any estimate of a team score in a match would be subject to huge variability to the extent that an estimate would be pretty much useless in my view.
2 years ago