Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final
Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 15.47 | 13.43 | 2.00 |
| Blues | 12.01 | 9.26 | 2.70 |
| Hurricanes | 7.70 | 8.28 | -0.60 |
| Chiefs | 7.61 | 5.56 | 2.00 |
| Brumbies | 5.52 | 3.61 | 1.90 |
| Highlanders | 3.31 | 6.54 | -3.20 |
| Reds | 0.26 | 1.37 | -1.10 |
| Waratahs | -2.59 | -9.00 | 6.40 |
| Western Force | -6.94 | -4.96 | -2.00 |
| Rebels | -8.27 | -5.79 | -2.50 |
| Moana Pasifika | -11.64 | -10.00 | -1.60 |
| Fijian Drua | -14.14 | -10.00 | -4.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 90 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Jun 10 | 20 – 7 | 13.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Blues vs. Brumbies | Jun 11 | 20 – 19 | 13.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Super Rugby Final
Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Crusaders | Jun 18 | Blues | 2.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
David, you had me worried until I saw your predicted Blues win is for a game to be played in September and not tonight’s cliffhanger! On a serious note let the best team win and please let the ref not take centre stage with his cards. That 1 in 20 year Blues win down in CHC was heavily influenced by the questionable red card dished out to Scott Barrett.
3 years ago
Ah the perils of data entry. Date fixed now.
No change to the prediction though: home ground advantage making the difference in a close game.
3 years ago