Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals
Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.90 | 6.83 | 1.10 |
| La Rochelle | 7.70 | 6.78 | 0.90 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.21 | 6.13 | 0.10 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.01 | 5.42 | 0.60 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.78 | 5.09 | -0.30 |
| RC Toulonnais | 4.50 | 1.82 | 2.70 |
| Lyon Rugby | 3.61 | 4.15 | -0.50 |
| Montpellier | 3.52 | -0.01 | 3.50 |
| Castres Olympique | 3.23 | 0.94 | 2.30 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.71 | 1.20 | -1.90 |
| Section Paloise | -1.81 | -2.25 | 0.40 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.05 | -2.78 | -0.30 |
| Brive | -4.06 | -3.19 | -0.90 |
| Biarritz | -10.48 | -2.78 | -7.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 181 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Montpellier | Jun 06 | 20 – 15 | 8.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Lyon Rugby vs. La Rochelle | Jun 06 | 26 – 29 | 3.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. RC Toulonnais | Jun 06 | 21 – 16 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique | Jun 06 | 16 – 26 | 2.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Brive | Jun 06 | 17 – 33 | 11.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Biarritz | Jun 06 | 80 – 7 | 22.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Jun 06 | 22 – 15 | -3.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for the Quarter-finals
Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle | Jun 12 | Stade Toulousain | 6.70 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Jun 13 | Bordeaux-Begles | 6.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »