NRL Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 16.47 | 19.20 | -2.70 |
| Panthers | 15.62 | 14.26 | 1.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 7.38 | 15.81 | -8.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 4.51 | 10.99 | -6.50 |
| Eels | 3.96 | 2.54 | 1.40 |
| Roosters | 2.66 | 2.23 | 0.40 |
| Cowboys | 1.24 | -12.27 | 13.50 |
| Sharks | -0.30 | -1.10 | 0.80 |
| Broncos | -0.68 | -8.90 | 8.20 |
| Raiders | -0.91 | -1.10 | 0.20 |
| Titans | -5.90 | 1.05 | -6.90 |
| Dragons | -6.83 | -7.99 | 1.20 |
| Warriors | -9.11 | -8.99 | -0.10 |
| Knights | -9.67 | -6.54 | -3.10 |
| Wests Tigers | -9.67 | -10.94 | 1.30 |
| Bulldogs | -10.77 | -10.25 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 100 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans vs. Cowboys | Jun 02 | 6 – 32 | -1.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | Jun 03 | 30 – 18 | 31.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sea Eagles vs. Warriors | Jun 04 | 44 – 12 | 17.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Roosters | Jun 05 | 22 – 16 | -1.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Dragons | Jun 10 | Cowboys | 11.10 |
| 2 | Titans vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 11 | Rabbitohs | -10.30 |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Storm | Jun 11 | Storm | -10.80 |
| 4 | Broncos vs. Raiders | Jun 11 | Broncos | 3.20 |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 12 | Sea Eagles | -11.20 |
| 6 | Knights vs. Panthers | Jun 12 | Panthers | -22.30 |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Jun 12 | Sharks | -8.80 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | Jun 13 | Eels | -11.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Can you predict the round 14 games
2 years ago
Sorry about that. I didn’t have the full fixture list in my database, and was rushing to publish this morning, so didn’t do a full check of what was appearing on Stats Chat.
Predictions are there now.
2 years ago
Hi David, when assessing a team, how many points do you think a ‘Home Ground’ advantage should be? Thanks, Douglas.
2 years ago
Hi Sir
Fascinated by your model and appreciate your input, ever considered doing AFL?
D
2 years ago