NRL Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 16.79 | 14.26 | 2.50 |
| Storm | 16.47 | 19.20 | -2.70 |
| Rabbitohs | 7.38 | 15.81 | -8.40 |
| Eels | 3.96 | 2.54 | 1.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.62 | 10.99 | -7.40 |
| Roosters | 3.29 | 2.23 | 1.10 |
| Cowboys | -0.19 | -12.27 | 12.10 |
| Sharks | -0.30 | -1.10 | 0.80 |
| Broncos | -0.68 | -8.90 | 8.20 |
| Raiders | -1.54 | -1.10 | -0.40 |
| Titans | -4.47 | 1.05 | -5.50 |
| Dragons | -6.83 | -7.99 | 1.20 |
| Warriors | -8.21 | -8.99 | 0.80 |
| Knights | -9.67 | -6.54 | -3.10 |
| Wests Tigers | -9.67 | -10.94 | 1.30 |
| Bulldogs | -11.94 | -10.25 | -1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 96 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | May 26 | 28 – 8 | 15.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | May 27 | 22 – 0 | 19.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Titans | May 27 | 35 – 24 | 6.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Knights | May 28 | 16 – 24 | 2.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | May 28 | 44 – 18 | 18.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Roosters | May 28 | 16 – 36 | 2.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Dragons | May 29 | 24 – 34 | -0.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Eels | May 29 | 20 – 28 | -1.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans vs. Cowboys | Jun 02 | Cowboys | -1.30 |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | Jun 03 | Panthers | 31.70 |
| 3 | Sea Eagles vs. Warriors | Jun 04 | Sea Eagles | 17.30 |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Roosters | Jun 05 | Roosters | -1.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
can you predict over and under for all the games this week round 13
3 years ago
Good predictions I will bet according to your tips
3 years ago
Pls correct my prediction tips:
Tatians 1-12
Panthers 13+
Sea Eagles 13+
Canberra Radiars 1-12
3 years ago
Can you put down your score this weekend for round 13 as proof? You didn’t list for round 12? How can we believe your probability methods?
3 years ago
Do keep up. Predictions were posted for Round 12.
The method I use is exponential smoothing with a few tweaks and estimation of parameters. I have often indicated the limitations of the method, and indeed advised against undue belief in any method purporting to predict results from a random process.
I was a university academic for over 45 years specializing in probability and statistics. Up to you whether you believe it or not.
3 years ago
I have decided to severely limit comments.
You will have to say something particularly interesting for me to approve a comment.
3 years ago
Thank you Sir, that clarifies, cowboys won & I now understand where you’re coming from based on your predictions.
3 years ago
good prediction i will bet accordingly
3 years ago
Im very much impressed with your predictions thanks Mr Scott
3 years ago
Thanks Scott for your predictions for round 13.Please continue for all the remaining rounds. 👍
3 years ago
Can you explain briefly how we could use the percentage/performance to do calculations ourselves or it is to difficult and can only be done by you?
Thanks.
3 years ago
OK. This is an interesting question.
Short answer is no, you would need some data and statistical expertise.
I am travelling this week, but will try and post on my return giving an explanation of what is involved.
3 years ago
Thanks for the reply sir. By the way I think I understand how u got your predictions now… I presume the home advantage is 6.5 so you add onto the home team then minus against the away team to get your game predictions?
All in all I think your predictions are very good and could all be near perfect if players had values also like the home advantage value it would make some games more accurate since they are the most important part of the predictions/stats.
example; cowboys vs Storms a few weeks back when Papenhouzen, RSmith, Solomona and Hugh’s didn’t play causing your stats to be significantly wrong.
Thanks.
3 years ago
Hi Eugene, I give – 5 points for a fullback or 5/8 missing from the 17. -3 points for a Marquee player missing. -2 points for a regular player missing. I also give scores to aspects like Home/Away game, Avg points scored in a game, Avg unforced errors and so on. I have 30 key markers/aspects I score to make my prediction. I enjoy it & I’m learning all the time. Cheers.
3 years ago
Thanks, David, it would be great to hear about your method. Cheers, Douglas.
3 years ago