May 10, 2022

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 9.24 7.25 2.00
Cheetahs 5.06 -2.70 7.80
Sharks 2.43 4.13 -1.70
Pumas 1.13 -3.31 4.40
Griquas -2.42 -4.92 2.50
Western Province -2.42 1.42 -3.80
Lions -13.02 -1.88 -11.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Cheetahs May 07 26 – 35 -14.60 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Pumas May 07 10 – 20 8.70 FALSE
3 Bulls vs. Griquas May 08 48 – 38 17.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Western Province May 14 Pumas 8.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks May 14 Cheetahs 7.10
3 Bulls vs. Lions May 15 Bulls 26.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »