May 3, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 26

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Team Ratings for Week 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.97 14.79 1.20
Munster 10.59 10.69 -0.10
Ulster 8.71 7.41 1.30
Stormers 6.90 0.00 6.90
Bulls 6.62 3.65 3.00
Sharks 6.19 -0.07 6.30
Edinburgh 3.03 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.39 3.69 -1.30
Connacht -0.53 1.72 -2.20
Ospreys -0.58 0.94 -1.50
Scarlets -0.90 -0.77 -0.10
Lions -2.45 -3.91 1.50
Benetton -5.93 -4.50 -1.40
Cardiff Rugby -6.32 -0.11 -6.20
Dragons -10.70 -6.92 -3.80
Zebre -16.97 -13.47 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Glasgow Apr 30 29 – 17 10.40 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 30 42 – 21 23.90 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Benetton May 01 37 – 29 10.40 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Connacht May 01 41 – 21 11.70 TRUE
5 Zebre vs. Dragons May 01 23 – 18 -0.80 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Scarlets May 01 54 – 36 3.80 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Leinster May 01 20 – 13 -3.80 FALSE
8 Edinburgh vs. Ulster May 01 10 – 16 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 26

Here are the predictions for Week 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Dragons May 09 Ospreys 15.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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