Top 14 Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 7.11 | 6.78 | 0.30 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.70 | 6.13 | 0.60 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.01 | 6.83 | -0.80 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 5.61 | 5.42 | 0.20 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.67 | 4.15 | 0.50 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.54 | 5.09 | -0.60 |
| RC Toulonnais | 4.05 | 1.82 | 2.20 |
| Montpellier | 3.06 | -0.01 | 3.10 |
| Castres Olympique | 2.63 | 0.94 | 1.70 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.41 | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| Section Paloise | -1.12 | -2.25 | 1.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.23 | -2.78 | -0.50 |
| Brive | -4.42 | -3.19 | -1.20 |
| Biarritz | -8.68 | -2.78 | -5.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 167 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Castres Olympique | May 01 | 13 – 48 | -2.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais | May 01 | 16 – 29 | 9.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Francais Paris | May 01 | 29 – 26 | 11.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Lyon Rugby vs. Montpellier | May 01 | 43 – 20 | 7.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Racing-Metro 92 | May 01 | 21 – 42 | 0.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle | May 01 | 23 – 16 | 5.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Brive | May 01 | 27 – 10 | 7.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Clermont Auvergne | May 22 | Clermont Auvergne | -6.70 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Lyon Rugby | May 22 | Bordeaux-Begles | 7.40 |
| 3 | Brive vs. Stade Toulousain | May 22 | Stade Toulousain | -3.90 |
| 4 | Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan | May 22 | Castres Olympique | 12.40 |
| 5 | La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais Paris | May 22 | La Rochelle | 13.20 |
| 6 | Montpellier vs. Racing-Metro 92 | May 22 | Montpellier | 2.90 |
| 7 | RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise | May 22 | RC Toulonnais | 11.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »