Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12
Team Ratings for Week 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 13.02 | 13.43 | -0.40 |
| Blues | 10.74 | 9.26 | 1.50 |
| Chiefs | 8.73 | 5.56 | 3.20 |
| Hurricanes | 7.68 | 8.28 | -0.60 |
| Brumbies | 5.09 | 3.61 | 1.50 |
| Highlanders | 3.72 | 6.54 | -2.80 |
| Reds | 1.58 | 1.37 | 0.20 |
| Waratahs | -4.61 | -9.00 | 4.40 |
| Western Force | -5.12 | -4.96 | -0.20 |
| Rebels | -8.37 | -5.79 | -2.60 |
| Moana Pasifika | -11.35 | -10.00 | -1.30 |
| Fijian Drua | -12.80 | -10.00 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 59 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reds vs. Chiefs | Apr 29 | 25 – 27 | -1.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Western Force vs. Blues | Apr 29 | 18 – 22 | -11.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Highlanders | Apr 30 | 24 – 27 | -11.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Crusaders | Apr 30 | 24 – 21 | -13.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Rebels vs. Moana Pasifika | Apr 30 | 26 – 22 | 9.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Brumbies vs. Hurricanes | May 01 | 42 – 25 | 1.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 12
Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Rebels | May 06 | Blues | 25.10 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Highlanders | May 06 | Reds | 3.90 |
| 3 | Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs | May 07 | Waratahs | -0.70 |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Brumbies | May 07 | Chiefs | 9.60 |
| 5 | Western Force vs. Crusaders | May 07 | Crusaders | -12.10 |
| 6 | Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua | May 08 | Hurricanes | 26.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »