NRL Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 20.05 | 19.20 | 0.80 |
| Panthers | 15.18 | 14.26 | 0.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 12.07 | 15.81 | -3.70 |
| Sea Eagles | 6.88 | 10.99 | -4.10 |
| Eels | 3.03 | 2.54 | 0.50 |
| Sharks | 1.77 | -1.10 | 2.90 |
| Roosters | 0.74 | 2.23 | -1.50 |
| Titans | -2.32 | 1.05 | -3.40 |
| Cowboys | -4.54 | -12.27 | 7.70 |
| Raiders | -4.63 | -1.10 | -3.50 |
| Dragons | -6.96 | -7.99 | 1.00 |
| Broncos | -7.12 | -8.90 | 1.80 |
| Warriors | -8.19 | -8.99 | 0.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.99 | -10.94 | 1.90 |
| Knights | -9.00 | -6.54 | -2.50 |
| Bulldogs | -9.97 | -10.25 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Sharks | Apr 28 | 16 – 7 | -7.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Titans vs. Panthers | Apr 29 | 4 – 18 | -14.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 29 | 40 – 22 | 6.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Apr 30 | 21 – 20 | -4.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | Apr 30 | 16 – 12 | -9.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Eels vs. Cowboys | Apr 30 | 4 – 35 | 15.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Storm | May 01 | 2 – 50 | -23.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Wests Tigers | May 01 | 12 – 6 | 4.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Broncos | May 05 | Rabbitohs | 22.20 |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | May 06 | Raiders | 8.30 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Eels | May 06 | Panthers | 15.20 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers | May 07 | Sea Eagles | 18.90 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Titans | May 07 | Roosters | 6.10 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Knights | May 07 | Cowboys | 7.50 |
| 7 | Storm vs. Dragons | May 08 | Storm | 30.00 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Warriors | May 08 | Sharks | 15.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Thanks for this week’s predictions. Have you thought further about my suggestion of adding a column that gives the percentage probability of a team winning? Cheers.
3 years ago
I agreed with your tips but a little bit confused with the game between Raiders and Bulldogs.
3 years ago