Posts from April 2022 (23)

April 5, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.27 6.78 0.50
Bordeaux-Begles 6.05 5.42 0.60
Stade Toulousain 5.93 6.83 -0.90
Racing-Metro 92 5.57 6.13 -0.60
Clermont Auvergne 5.45 5.09 0.40
Montpellier 3.85 -0.01 3.90
Lyon Rugby 3.70 4.15 -0.50
RC Toulonnais 3.35 1.82 1.50
Castres Olympique 1.19 0.94 0.20
Stade Francais Paris 0.21 1.20 -1.00
Section Paloise -0.67 -2.25 1.60
Brive -3.62 -3.19 -0.40
USA Perpignan -3.65 -2.78 -0.90
Biarritz -7.26 -2.78 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 153 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Section Paloise Apr 03 19 – 42 1.40 FALSE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle Apr 03 15 – 16 6.00 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 03 19 – 13 1.30 TRUE
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive Apr 03 41 – 10 14.50 TRUE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais Apr 03 10 – 43 9.30 FALSE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Apr 03 13 – 23 -0.00 TRUE
7 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Apr 04 53 – 20 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Lyon Rugby Apr 24 Lyon Rugby -0.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 24 Castres Olympique 2.20
3 La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan Apr 24 La Rochelle 17.40
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Biarritz Apr 24 Racing-Metro 92 19.30
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 24 Stade Francais Paris 7.40
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 24 RC Toulonnais 3.90
7 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Apr 25 Montpellier 4.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.89 13.43 0.50
Blues 9.32 9.26 0.10
Chiefs 8.64 5.56 3.10
Hurricanes 6.56 8.28 -1.70
Highlanders 5.09 6.54 -1.50
Brumbies 3.22 3.61 -0.40
Reds 2.42 1.37 1.00
Western Force -3.91 -4.96 1.10
Waratahs -5.73 -9.00 3.30
Rebels -7.92 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -10.43 -10.00 -0.40
Fijian Drua -12.86 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 01 17 – 14 15.70 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Apr 01 14 – 38 0.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 02 46 – 16 24.30 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 02 21 – 7 3.50 TRUE
5 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 03 29 – 30 4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 08 Highlanders 21.00
2 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 08 Crusaders -1.80
3 Western Force vs. Rebels Apr 08 Western Force 9.50
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 09 Chiefs 4.80
5 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Apr 09 Brumbies -10.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.93 -5.00 9.90
Leicester Tigers 3.93 -6.14 10.10
Exeter Chiefs 3.15 7.35 -4.20
Harlequins 2.44 -1.08 3.50
Sale Sharks 1.73 4.96 -3.20
Northampton Saints 1.55 -2.48 4.00
Wasps 1.39 5.66 -4.30
Gloucester 0.72 -1.02 1.70
Bristol -3.14 1.28 -4.40
London Irish -4.08 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.95 2.14 -8.10
Newcastle Falcons -5.95 -3.52 -2.40
Worcester Warriors -12.31 -5.71 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 129 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 02 12 – 18 2.30 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 03 42 – 22 12.70 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Apr 03 21 – 27 5.10 FALSE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Apr 03 39 – 22 8.20 TRUE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 03 10 – 45 1.50 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Harlequins Apr 04 14 – 41 0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Apr 23 Bristol 0.60
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish Apr 23 Newcastle Falcons 2.60
3 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Apr 24 Northampton Saints -3.00
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 24 Harlequins 3.00
5 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 24 Wasps 18.20
6 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 25 Saracens 6.30

 

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