United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 25
Team Ratings for Week 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 16.58 | 14.79 | 1.80 |
| Munster | 10.86 | 10.69 | 0.20 |
| Ulster | 7.96 | 7.41 | 0.50 |
| Bulls | 6.48 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| Stormers | 6.30 | 0.00 | 6.30 |
| Sharks | 5.44 | -0.07 | 5.50 |
| Edinburgh | 3.78 | 2.90 | 0.90 |
| Glasgow | 2.53 | 3.69 | -1.20 |
| Connacht | 0.22 | 1.72 | -1.50 |
| Scarlets | -0.15 | -0.77 | 0.60 |
| Ospreys | -1.33 | 0.94 | -2.30 |
| Lions | -2.23 | -3.91 | 1.70 |
| Benetton | -6.15 | -4.50 | -1.70 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -6.59 | -0.11 | -6.50 |
| Dragons | -10.18 | -6.92 | -3.30 |
| Zebre | -17.49 | -13.47 | -4.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stormers vs. Glasgow | Apr 23 | 32 – 7 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Munster | Apr 23 | 17 – 24 | 3.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Edinburgh vs. Zebre | Apr 23 | 29 – 26 | 30.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Benetton | Apr 24 | 46 – 29 | 19.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Scarlets | Apr 24 | 19 – 38 | -3.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Connacht | Apr 24 | 30 – 33 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys | Apr 24 | 6 – 22 | 1.50 | FALSE |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Leinster | Apr 24 | 28 – 23 | -5.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 25
Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls vs. Glasgow | Apr 30 | Bulls | 10.40 |
| 2 | Munster vs. Cardiff Rugby | Apr 30 | Munster | 23.90 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Benetton | May 01 | Lions | 10.40 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Connacht | May 01 | Sharks | 11.70 |
| 5 | Zebre vs. Dragons | May 01 | Dragons | -0.80 |
| 6 | Ospreys vs. Scarlets | May 01 | Ospreys | 3.80 |
| 7 | Stormers vs. Leinster | May 01 | Leinster | -3.80 |
| 8 | Edinburgh vs. Ulster | May 01 | Edinburgh | 2.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »