Top 14 Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 7.20 | 6.78 | 0.40 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.32 | 5.42 | 0.90 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.03 | 6.13 | -0.10 |
| Stade Toulousain | 5.92 | 6.83 | -0.90 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.96 | 5.09 | -0.10 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.15 | 4.15 | -0.00 |
| Montpellier | 3.59 | -0.01 | 3.60 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.35 | 1.82 | 1.50 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.68 | 0.94 | 0.70 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.01 | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| Section Paloise | -0.45 | -2.25 | 1.80 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.58 | -2.78 | -0.80 |
| Brive | -4.07 | -3.19 | -0.90 |
| Biarritz | -7.72 | -2.78 | -4.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Lyon Rugby | Apr 24 | 17 – 31 | -0.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne | Apr 24 | 12 – 0 | 2.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan | Apr 24 | 32 – 16 | 17.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Biarritz | Apr 24 | 40 – 7 | 19.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise | Apr 24 | 21 – 18 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 24 | 19 – 15 | 3.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Apr 25 | 22 – 23 | 4.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Castres Olympique | May 01 | Castres Olympique | -2.90 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais | May 01 | Bordeaux-Begles | 9.50 |
| 3 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Francais Paris | May 01 | Clermont Auvergne | 11.50 |
| 4 | Lyon Rugby vs. Montpellier | May 01 | Lyon Rugby | 7.10 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Racing-Metro 92 | May 01 | Section Paloise | 0.00 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle | May 01 | Stade Toulousain | 5.20 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Brive | May 01 | USA Perpignan | 7.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »