NRL Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 18.61 | 19.20 | -0.60 |
| Panthers | 15.23 | 14.26 | 1.00 |
| Rabbitohs | 11.36 | 15.81 | -4.50 |
| Sea Eagles | 7.59 | 10.99 | -3.40 |
| Eels | 5.57 | 2.54 | 3.00 |
| Sharks | 2.79 | -1.10 | 3.90 |
| Roosters | 1.56 | 2.23 | -0.70 |
| Titans | -2.37 | 1.05 | -3.40 |
| Raiders | -4.19 | -1.10 | -3.10 |
| Dragons | -7.05 | -7.99 | 0.90 |
| Cowboys | -7.08 | -12.27 | 5.20 |
| Knights | -7.56 | -6.54 | -1.00 |
| Broncos | -8.14 | -8.90 | 0.80 |
| Warriors | -8.62 | -8.99 | 0.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.89 | -10.94 | 2.00 |
| Bulldogs | -10.79 | -10.25 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 21 | 34 – 22 | -3.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Apr 22 | 34 – 14 | 3.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Apr 23 | 30 – 4 | -5.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 23 | 23 – 22 | -19.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Knights vs. Eels | Apr 24 | 2 – 39 | -6.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Raiders | Apr 24 | 36 – 6 | 21.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | 14 – 12 | -6.70 | FALSE |
| 8 | Storm vs. Warriors | Apr 25 | 70 – 10 | 29.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Sharks | Apr 28 | Sharks | -7.90 |
| 2 | Titans vs. Panthers | Apr 29 | Panthers | -14.60 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 29 | Rabbitohs | 6.80 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Apr 30 | Raiders | -4.40 |
| 5 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | Apr 30 | Roosters | -9.40 |
| 6 | Eels vs. Cowboys | Apr 30 | Eels | 15.60 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Storm | May 01 | Storm | -23.20 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Wests Tigers | May 01 | Dragons | 4.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
good prediction
3 years ago
Hi David, could you also put in a column indicating the % possibility of each NRL team winning? Many thanks.
3 years ago
This is possible. Will need some work but I will look into it.
3 years ago
Put your score of tomorrow game broncos vs sharks
3 years ago