April 19, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.29 13.43 -0.10
Blues 11.45 9.26 2.20
Hurricanes 7.75 8.28 -0.50
Chiefs 7.72 5.56 2.20
Highlanders 4.68 6.54 -1.90
Brumbies 3.81 3.61 0.20
Reds 2.40 1.37 1.00
Waratahs -4.55 -9.00 4.40
Western Force -5.68 -4.96 -0.70
Rebels -7.31 -5.79 -1.50
Moana Pasifika -11.83 -10.00 -1.80
Fijian Drua -13.45 -10.00 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 15 23 – 27 8.70 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 15 32 – 36 -4.30 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 16 45 – 12 24.00 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 16 21 – 22 3.10 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Waratahs Apr 16 24 – 41 6.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Apr 22 Chiefs 6.30
2 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force Apr 22 Western Force -12.10
3 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Apr 23 Blues 18.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Reds Apr 23 Reds -0.60
5 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 24 Brumbies -5.10
6 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 24 Crusaders 14.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Walter Singe

    Sir can any prediction for AFL?

    3 years ago