April 19, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.86 19.20 -2.30
Panthers 14.71 14.26 0.40
Rabbitohs 12.60 15.81 -3.20
Sea Eagles 8.54 10.99 -2.50
Eels 3.85 2.54 1.30
Roosters 2.21 2.23 -0.00
Sharks 1.84 -1.10 2.90
Titans -0.61 1.05 -1.70
Raiders -3.61 -1.10 -2.50
Knights -5.81 -6.54 0.70
Dragons -7.39 -7.99 0.60
Warriors -7.89 -8.99 1.10
Cowboys -8.48 -12.27 3.80
Broncos -8.87 -8.90 0.00
Bulldogs -9.80 -10.25 0.40
Wests Tigers -10.13 -10.94 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Cowboys Apr 14 12 – 18 9.80 FALSE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Apr 15 36 – 16 22.90 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Broncos Apr 15 40 – 12 26.30 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 16 26 – 18 12.90 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 16 34 – 18 18.40 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 17 22 – 14 16.70 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 17 21 – 16 0.70 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 18 20 – 21 19.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Apr 21 Sea Eagles -3.70
2 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 22 Broncos 3.90
3 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 23 Titans -4.90
4 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 23 Rabbitohs -19.70
5 Knights vs. Eels Apr 24 Eels -6.70
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 24 Panthers 21.30
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Roosters -6.60
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 30.30

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Enosh Bale

    Sir,
    I am very much interested with the score line for every game. Either its over or under 40 points in total, depending on the number of points scored by each nrl team.

    I need points predictions. Statistics with correlated predictions.

    3 years ago

    • avatar

      Sorry, not happening. Remember what you paid for these predictions

      3 years ago

      • avatar
        ROLEX GITTY

        I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW THE SCORE MARGNE FOR EVERY GAMES WITH THE PREDICATION POINT THAT EACH TEAM WILL GET. THANKS

        3 years ago

  • avatar
    Gibson Pena

    Sir could you please highlight the predicted winning teams for this NRL round 7 game as you’ve listed in accordance with their percentage levels of winning.

    3 years ago

  • avatar

    Interested nrl all nrl game and predictions

    3 years ago

  • avatar
    Lena Gregory

    Could kindly email me all predictions score to me round by round. I am pretty interested.

    3 years ago