April 12, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Postponed Games

Team Ratings for Postponed Games

I will post predictions for this weekend’s game after the postponed game is played tonight.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.99 13.43 0.60
Blues 10.75 9.26 1.50
Chiefs 7.21 5.56 1.60
Hurricanes 6.46 8.28 -1.80
Highlanders 5.01 6.54 -1.50
Brumbies 3.81 3.61 0.20
Reds 2.42 1.37 1.00
Western Force -4.50 -4.96 0.50
Waratahs -5.73 -9.00 3.30
Rebels -7.33 -5.79 -1.50
Moana Pasifika -10.35 -10.00 -0.30
Fijian Drua -13.45 -10.00 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 08 37 – 17 21.00 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 08 21 – 24 -1.80 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Rebels Apr 08 21 – 22 9.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 09 0 – 25 4.80 FALSE
5 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Apr 09 12 – 33 -10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 12 Hurricanes 22.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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