Top 14 Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 7.27 | 6.78 | 0.50 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.05 | 5.42 | 0.60 |
| Stade Toulousain | 5.93 | 6.83 | -0.90 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.57 | 6.13 | -0.60 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 5.45 | 5.09 | 0.40 |
| Montpellier | 3.85 | -0.01 | 3.90 |
| Lyon Rugby | 3.70 | 4.15 | -0.50 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.35 | 1.82 | 1.50 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.19 | 0.94 | 0.20 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.21 | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| Section Paloise | -0.67 | -2.25 | 1.60 |
| Brive | -3.62 | -3.19 | -0.40 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.65 | -2.78 | -0.90 |
| Biarritz | -7.26 | -2.78 | -4.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 153 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Section Paloise | Apr 03 | 19 – 42 | 1.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle | Apr 03 | 15 – 16 | 6.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 03 | 19 – 13 | 1.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive | Apr 03 | 41 – 10 | 14.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais | Apr 03 | 10 – 43 | 9.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier | Apr 03 | 13 – 23 | -0.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris | Apr 04 | 53 – 20 | 10.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Lyon Rugby | Apr 24 | Lyon Rugby | -0.80 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne | Apr 24 | Castres Olympique | 2.20 |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan | Apr 24 | La Rochelle | 17.40 |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Biarritz | Apr 24 | Racing-Metro 92 | 19.30 |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise | Apr 24 | Stade Francais Paris | 7.40 |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 24 | RC Toulonnais | 3.90 |
| 7 | Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Apr 25 | Montpellier | 4.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »