April 5, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.89 13.43 0.50
Blues 9.32 9.26 0.10
Chiefs 8.64 5.56 3.10
Hurricanes 6.56 8.28 -1.70
Highlanders 5.09 6.54 -1.50
Brumbies 3.22 3.61 -0.40
Reds 2.42 1.37 1.00
Western Force -3.91 -4.96 1.10
Waratahs -5.73 -9.00 3.30
Rebels -7.92 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -10.43 -10.00 -0.40
Fijian Drua -12.86 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 01 17 – 14 15.70 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Apr 01 14 – 38 0.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 02 46 – 16 24.30 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 02 21 – 7 3.50 TRUE
5 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 03 29 – 30 4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 08 Highlanders 21.00
2 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 08 Crusaders -1.80
3 Western Force vs. Rebels Apr 08 Western Force 9.50
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 09 Chiefs 4.80
5 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Apr 09 Brumbies -10.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »