Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 4.93 | -5.00 | 9.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | 3.93 | -6.14 | 10.10 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.15 | 7.35 | -4.20 |
| Harlequins | 2.44 | -1.08 | 3.50 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.73 | 4.96 | -3.20 |
| Northampton Saints | 1.55 | -2.48 | 4.00 |
| Wasps | 1.39 | 5.66 | -4.30 |
| Gloucester | 0.72 | -1.02 | 1.70 |
| Bristol | -3.14 | 1.28 | -4.40 |
| London Irish | -4.08 | -8.05 | 4.00 |
| Bath | -5.95 | 2.14 | -8.10 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -5.95 | -3.52 | -2.40 |
| Worcester Warriors | -12.31 | -5.71 | -6.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 129 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. Saracens | Apr 02 | 12 – 18 | 2.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath | Apr 03 | 42 – 22 | 12.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Wasps | Apr 03 | 21 – 27 | 5.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Bristol | Apr 03 | 39 – 22 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 03 | 10 – 45 | 1.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | London Irish vs. Harlequins | Apr 04 | 14 – 41 | 0.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Gloucester | Apr 23 | Bristol | 0.60 |
| 2 | Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish | Apr 23 | Newcastle Falcons | 2.60 |
| 3 | Bath vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 24 | Northampton Saints | -3.00 |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers | Apr 24 | Harlequins | 3.00 |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors | Apr 24 | Wasps | 18.20 |
| 6 | Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 25 | Saracens | 6.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »