NRL Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 17.31 | 19.20 | -1.90 |
| Panthers | 14.72 | 14.26 | 0.50 |
| Rabbitohs | 13.64 | 15.81 | -2.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 8.06 | 10.99 | -2.90 |
| Eels | 4.78 | 2.54 | 2.20 |
| Roosters | 3.20 | 2.23 | 1.00 |
| Sharks | 0.93 | -1.10 | 2.00 |
| Titans | -0.72 | 1.05 | -1.80 |
| Raiders | -2.91 | -1.10 | -1.80 |
| Knights | -4.59 | -6.54 | 2.00 |
| Warriors | -7.93 | -8.99 | 1.10 |
| Dragons | -8.55 | -7.99 | -0.60 |
| Broncos | -9.16 | -8.90 | -0.30 |
| Cowboys | -9.96 | -12.27 | 2.30 |
| Bulldogs | -10.19 | -10.25 | 0.10 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.62 | -10.94 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 31 | 8 – 6 | 14.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Knights | Apr 01 | 18 – 0 | 7.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 01 | 26 – 12 | 2.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Apr 02 | 20 – 6 | 5.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | Apr 02 | 25 – 6 | 13.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Roosters | Apr 02 | 4 – 28 | -8.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Bulldogs | Apr 03 | 44 – 0 | 28.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Eels vs. Dragons | Apr 03 | 48 – 14 | 14.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 07 | Sea Eagles | -9.60 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Cowboys | Apr 08 | Warriors | 7.50 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | Apr 08 | Roosters | -9.40 |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Storm | Apr 09 | Storm | -17.20 |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | Apr 09 | Rabbitohs | 25.20 |
| 6 | Titans vs. Eels | Apr 09 | Eels | -2.50 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 10 | Sharks | 14.60 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Apr 10 | Panthers | -21.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Please advice which team will put first try
Thanks
Tanya frm PNG
Round 4 i follow your predictions and won
Thanks to you
😊
3 years ago
I would never try and predict who would get the first try. That is too much of a lottery. Betting companies want you to engage in bets like that because only betting once on a game gives them limited opportunities to take your money.
Remember also that there is a history of events like that being corruptly manipulated in the NRL. Hold down someone in the tackle a bit too long a couple of times, more sets of six from the penalties, and bingo there is a try.
3 years ago
Can predict all the first half-time winner.
3 years ago
This would be possible, but would take some work. Firstly I would need half time scores from NRL games for a number of years (ideally 5+) then I would apply the same method I use for full time scores.
Half time scores only became readily available a couple of years ago from the websites I use. Also, the predictions are likely to be less reliable I suspect.
Note also this is another example of betting companies wanting to increase opportunities for betting.
3 years ago
When are you gonna update round 6 prediction?
Round 5 was A+
3 years ago
I always try to post on a Tuesday, preferably in the morning NZ time.
3 years ago
Can you do predictions on over and under scores for NRL Round 6?
3 years ago
No. If I understand what you want then you may be able to get those from the margin values.
3 years ago
Make corrections on your round 6 predictions for the draw it’s not storms vs roosters it’s storms vs sharks.
Thanks
3 years ago
Sorry but I hadn’t actually posted Round 6 predictions when this was submitted.
3 years ago
How about predictions for UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League and UEFA Europa Conference League Quarter Finals? These games will be played on Thursday, 14th & Friday, 15th.
Thanks and looking forward to hearing from you.
Cheers
3 years ago
Unfortunately my methodology is not appropriate for football games which have very low scores compared to rugby or rugby league.
There is also a problem with trying to predict competitions of this sort because there can be different teams from one year to the next making relevant information about current strength (rating) difficult if not impossible. I have a strategy for a competition when a new inexperienced team is introduced to an existing competition (viz Super Rugby this year), but wouldn’t have any confidence ranking teams starting those competitions.
3 years ago
Any prediction on the margin scores, either 1-12 & 13+
You are doing well with your prediction so far, thumbs up
3 years ago
it was awesome by studying your predictions…
well predicted as time goes by.
thank you D.Scott
3 years ago