Top 14 Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
La Rochelle | 7.43 | 6.78 | 0.60 |
Bordeaux-Begles | 5.90 | 5.42 | 0.50 |
Stade Toulousain | 5.60 | 6.83 | -1.20 |
Clermont Auvergne | 5.26 | 5.09 | 0.20 |
Racing-Metro 92 | 5.26 | 6.13 | -0.90 |
Lyon Rugby | 4.92 | 4.15 | 0.80 |
Montpellier | 4.40 | -0.01 | 4.40 |
Castres Olympique | 1.44 | 0.94 | 0.50 |
Stade Francais Paris | 1.41 | 1.20 | 0.20 |
RC Toulonnais | 0.47 | 1.82 | -1.30 |
Section Paloise | -1.25 | -2.25 | 1.00 |
USA Perpignan | -3.33 | -2.78 | -0.60 |
Brive | -3.56 | -3.19 | -0.40 |
Biarritz | -6.58 | -2.78 | -3.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 136 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Biarritz vs. RC Toulonnais | Mar 06 | 17 – 45 | 1.20 | FALSE |
2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise | Mar 06 | 16 – 23 | 15.00 | FALSE |
3 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | Mar 06 | 25 – 9 | 2.60 | TRUE |
4 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby | Mar 06 | 25 – 16 | 6.60 | TRUE |
5 | La Rochelle vs. Brive | Mar 06 | 41 – 15 | 16.50 | TRUE |
6 | USA Perpignan vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Mar 06 | 34 – 13 | -3.60 | FALSE |
7 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 07 | 23 – 16 | 1.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brive vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 27 | Brive | 1.50 |
2 | La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Mar 27 | La Rochelle | 8.70 |
3 | Montpellier vs. Biarritz | Mar 27 | Montpellier | 17.50 |
4 | Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 27 | Section Paloise | 8.60 |
5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Mar 27 | Stade Francais Paris | 2.00 |
6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Rugby | Mar 27 | Stade Toulousain | 7.20 |
7 | RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne | Mar 27 | RC Toulonnais | 1.70 |