Posts from March 2022 (31)

March 22, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

I have just updated the prediction for the Force vs Brumbies which is to be played in Perth. The locations of the games between these two teams were swapped around because of the difficulty of travel to WA.

I have included a post hoc prediction for the rescheduled Round 2 game between the Chiefs and Moana Pasifika, which hadn’t been decided on when I posted last week. I will try and update later this week if there are cancelled games or rescheduled games because of Covid.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.75 13.43 0.30
Chiefs 9.05 5.56 3.50
Blues 8.93 9.26 -0.30
Hurricanes 7.95 8.28 -0.30
Highlanders 4.89 6.54 -1.70
Brumbies 3.93 3.61 0.30
Reds 2.05 1.37 0.70
Western Force -4.03 -4.96 0.90
Waratahs -7.17 -9.00 1.80
Rebels -8.47 -5.79 -2.70
Fijian Drua -11.08 -10.00 -1.10
Moana Pasifika -11.51 -10.00 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 25 59 – 12 16.40 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 18 16 – 12 8.00 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 19 18 – 20 -1.50 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 19 24 – 19 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 25 Hurricanes -14.00
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Mar 25 Rebels 8.10
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 26 Highlanders 1.50
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Mar 26 Chiefs 0.80
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 26 Reds 14.70
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Mar 27 Brumbies -2.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

Unfortunately I entered my updating parameter incorrectly when preparing the predictions for the NRL, which I only realised when looking over the predictions for this round. I misplaced the decimal point so the parameter was out by a factor of 10. The predictions for Round 1 were not affected but those for Round 2 are. The updated values for those predictions are below. If you check the posted predictions for Round 2 you will see that there were extreme changes in the ratings from Round 1 to Round 2, which should not happen.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 17.69 19.20 -1.50
Rabbitohs 14.65 15.81 -1.20
Panthers 14.29 14.26 0.00
Sea Eagles 8.83 10.99 -2.20
Eels 2.28 2.54 -0.30
Roosters 1.95 2.23 -0.30
Titans 0.20 1.05 -0.80
Sharks -1.04 -1.10 0.10
Raiders -2.58 -1.10 -1.50
Knights -4.18 -6.54 2.40
Dragons -6.07 -7.99 1.90
Broncos -6.76 -8.90 2.10
Warriors -9.09 -8.99 -0.10
Bulldogs -10.51 -10.25 -0.30
Wests Tigers -10.77 -10.94 0.20
Cowboys -10.87 -12.27 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 15 – 14 7.00 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 18 16 – 20 -19.20 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 18 26 – 12 -6.30 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Warriors Mar 19 20 – 18 16.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Eels Mar 19 18 – 16 -0.80 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 19 26 – 6 -8.60 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 20 26 – 4 7.90 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Mar 20 10 – 16 0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 24 Sharks -2.00
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 25 Wests Tigers 3.80
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 25 Rabbitohs 15.70
4 Panthers vs. Knights Mar 26 Panthers 21.50
5 Storm vs. Eels Mar 26 Storm 18.40
6 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 26 Raiders 0.20
7 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 27 Broncos 7.10
8 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 Sea Eagles 22.30

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 9.34 7.25 2.10
Sharks 4.88 4.13 0.70
Cheetahs 3.51 -2.70 6.20
Western Province 0.01 1.42 -1.40
Griquas -2.58 -4.92 2.30
Pumas -4.33 -3.31 -1.00
Lions -10.83 -1.88 -8.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Mar 17 49 – 17 9.30 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Mar 17 24 – 17 8.30 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 17 35 – 21 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Mar 24 Western Province 8.80
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Mar 24 Sharks 5.90
3 Lions vs. Bulls Mar 24 Bulls -15.70

 

March 15, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 19

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Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.15 14.79 0.40
Munster 10.97 10.69 0.30
Ulster 9.37 7.41 2.00
Edinburgh 5.12 2.90 2.20
Stormers 4.29 0.00 4.30
Bulls 3.44 3.65 -0.20
Glasgow 3.35 3.69 -0.30
Sharks 3.23 -0.07 3.30
Connacht 0.19 1.72 -1.50
Ospreys -0.86 0.94 -1.80
Scarlets -1.38 -0.77 -0.60
Cardiff Rugby -2.61 -0.11 -2.50
Lions -2.84 -3.91 1.10
Benetton -5.26 -4.50 -0.80
Dragons -8.48 -6.92 -1.60
Zebre -17.67 -13.47 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ulster vs. Leinster Mar 13 18 – 13 -2.40 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Scarlets Mar 12 37 – 20 9.80 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Munster Mar 13 29 – 24 -2.40 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 13 37 – 20 4.90 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Zebre Mar 14 55 – 7 26.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Scarlets Mar 19 Bulls 11.30
2 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Mar 19 Glasgow 3.20
3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 20 Sharks 27.40
4 Lions vs. Munster Mar 20 Munster -7.30
5 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 21 Stormers 13.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.43 6.78 0.60
Bordeaux-Begles 6.04 5.42 0.60
Stade Toulousain 5.60 6.83 -1.20
Racing-Metro 92 5.26 6.13 -0.90
Clermont Auvergne 5.11 5.09 0.00
Lyon Rugby 4.92 4.15 0.80
Montpellier 3.98 -0.01 4.00
Castres Olympique 1.44 0.94 0.50
Stade Francais Paris 1.41 1.20 0.20
RC Toulonnais 0.89 1.82 -0.90
Section Paloise -1.25 -2.25 1.00
USA Perpignan -3.33 -2.78 -0.60
Brive -3.56 -3.19 -0.40
Biarritz -6.58 -2.78 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 138 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Mar 13 29 – 26 5.90 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 14 18 – 16 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Mar 20 La Rochelle -1.50
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Mar 21 Stade Toulousain 10.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

These are predictions for two games which I missed. I am posting them for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.43 6.78 0.60
Bordeaux-Begles 5.90 5.42 0.50
Stade Toulousain 5.60 6.83 -1.20
Clermont Auvergne 5.26 5.09 0.20
Racing-Metro 92 5.26 6.13 -0.90
Lyon Rugby 4.92 4.15 0.80
Montpellier 4.40 -0.01 4.40
Castres Olympique 1.44 0.94 0.50
Stade Francais Paris 1.41 1.20 0.20
RC Toulonnais 0.47 1.82 -1.30
Section Paloise -1.25 -2.25 1.00
USA Perpignan -3.33 -2.78 -0.60
Brive -3.56 -3.19 -0.40
Biarritz -6.58 -2.78 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 06 17 – 45 1.20 FALSE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise Mar 06 16 – 23 15.00 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Mar 06 25 – 9 2.60 TRUE
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 06 25 – 16 6.60 TRUE
5 La Rochelle vs. Brive Mar 06 41 – 15 16.50 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 06 34 – 13 -3.60 FALSE
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 07 23 – 16 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Mar 13 Clermont Auvergne 5.90
2 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais Mar 14 Montpellier 10.40

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.80 13.43 0.40
Blues 8.83 9.26 -0.40
Hurricanes 7.95 8.28 -0.30
Chiefs 7.77 5.56 2.20
Highlanders 4.88 6.54 -1.70
Brumbies 4.25 3.61 0.60
Reds 1.73 1.37 0.40
Western Force -4.07 -4.96 0.90
Waratahs -7.00 -9.00 2.00
Rebels -8.64 -5.79 -2.90
Moana Pasifika -10.16 -10.00 -0.20
Fijian Drua -11.04 -10.00 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 11 32 – 20 9.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 11 17 – 36 -6.00 TRUE
3 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 11 22 – 17 2.10 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 12 21 – 24 13.20 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 12 33 – 28 19.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 18 Highlanders 20.50
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 18 Brumbies 8.00
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 19 Western Force -1.50
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Mar 19 Hurricanes 5.70
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 19 Waratahs 7.10
6 Crusaders vs. Blues Mar 20 Crusaders 10.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.94 -5.00 9.90
Leicester Tigers 3.40 -6.14 9.50
Exeter Chiefs 3.25 7.35 -4.10
Sale Sharks 2.51 4.96 -2.50
Wasps 1.39 5.66 -4.30
Gloucester 1.33 -1.02 2.40
Harlequins 1.10 -1.08 2.20
Northampton Saints -0.11 -2.48 2.40
London Irish -1.58 -8.05 6.50
Bristol -3.13 1.28 -4.40
Bath -5.83 2.14 -8.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.27 -3.52 -4.80
Worcester Warriors -10.61 -5.71 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 13 35 – 31 -11.00 FALSE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Mar 13 47 – 28 8.30 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Mar 13 21 – 36 -7.90 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Mar 13 26 – 24 6.20 TRUE
5 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 14 29 – 38 1.50 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Mar 14 27 – 22 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 26 Gloucester 16.40
2 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 27 Sale Sharks -3.80
3 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Mar 27 London Irish 3.00
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Mar 27 Saracens 12.60
5 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 27 Wasps 14.20
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 28 Exeter Chiefs 4.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 23.81 14.26 9.50
Storm 8.88 19.20 -10.30
Knights 8.36 -6.54 14.90
Broncos 7.52 -8.90 16.40
Eels 2.15 2.54 -0.40
Dragons 1.98 -7.99 10.00
Sea Eagles 1.44 10.99 -9.60
Titans 1.44 1.05 0.40
Raiders 0.50 -1.10 1.60
Rabbitohs -0.61 15.81 -16.40
Wests Tigers -0.62 -10.94 10.30
Sharks -2.70 -1.10 -1.60
Bulldogs -7.86 -10.25 2.40
Roosters -12.67 2.23 -14.90
Cowboys -14.65 -12.27 -2.40
Warriors -18.96 -8.99 -10.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Mar 10 28 – 6 6.30 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Sharks Mar 11 24 – 19 3.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 11 – 4 -21.70 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Knights Mar 12 6 – 20 11.80 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Dragons Mar 12 16 – 28 4.50 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Mar 12 16 – 26 -27.10 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Titans Mar 13 32 – 28 4.50 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Mar 13 4 – 6 1.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 Storm 12.50
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 18 Panthers -18.80
3 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 18 Sea Eagles -11.10
4 Titans vs. Warriors Mar 19 Titans 25.90
5 Sharks vs. Eels Mar 19 Eels -1.80
6 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 19 Raiders -12.10
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 20 Knights 12.00
8 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Mar 20 Broncos -12.40

 

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March 8, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18

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Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.47 14.79 0.70
Munster 11.61 10.69 0.90
Ulster 9.11 7.41 1.70
Edinburgh 5.15 2.90 2.30
Glasgow 3.34 3.69 -0.30
Stormers 3.24 0.00 3.20
Bulls 2.80 3.65 -0.80
Sharks 2.58 -0.07 2.60
Connacht 0.18 1.72 -1.50
Scarlets -0.75 -0.77 0.00
Ospreys -0.85 0.94 -1.80
Cardiff Rugby -1.94 -0.11 -1.80
Lions -3.52 -3.91 0.40
Benetton -5.27 -4.50 -0.80
Dragons -8.49 -6.92 -1.60
Zebre -16.60 -13.47 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 86 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Mar 05 56 – 8 8.00 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 05 48 – 12 15.50 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Leinster Mar 06 17 – 61 -11.30 TRUE
4 Munster vs. Dragons Mar 06 64 – 3 23.30 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Mar 06 35 – 10 0.10 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Zebre Mar 07 27 – 22 24.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ulster vs. Leinster Mar 13 Leinster -2.40
2 Sharks vs. Scarlets Mar 12 Sharks 9.80
3 Bulls vs. Munster Mar 13 Munster -2.30
4 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 13 Lions 4.90
5 Stormers vs. Zebre Mar 14 Stormers 26.30

 

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