United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 21
Team Ratings for Week 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 16.41 | 14.79 | 1.60 |
| Munster | 11.05 | 10.69 | 0.40 |
| Ulster | 9.33 | 7.41 | 1.90 |
| Bulls | 5.73 | 3.65 | 2.10 |
| Edinburgh | 5.61 | 2.90 | 2.70 |
| Stormers | 5.46 | 0.00 | 5.50 |
| Glasgow | 3.45 | 3.69 | -0.20 |
| Sharks | 2.59 | -0.07 | 2.70 |
| Connacht | -1.07 | 1.72 | -2.80 |
| Lions | -1.13 | -3.91 | 2.80 |
| Ospreys | -2.04 | 0.94 | -3.00 |
| Scarlets | -2.13 | -0.77 | -1.40 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -3.28 | -0.11 | -3.20 |
| Benetton | -5.87 | -4.50 | -1.40 |
| Dragons | -9.27 | -6.92 | -2.30 |
| Zebre | -18.83 | -13.47 | -5.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 104 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions vs. Ospreys | Mar 26 | 45 – 15 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Munster vs. Benetton | Mar 26 | 51 – 22 | 22.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Stormers vs. Ulster | Mar 27 | 23 – 20 | 2.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Zebre vs. Scarlets | Mar 27 | 24 – 41 | -8.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Edinburgh | Mar 27 | 5 – 21 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Dragons | Mar 27 | 55 – 20 | 19.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow | Mar 27 | 32 – 28 | -1.20 | FALSE |
| 8 | Connacht vs. Leinster | Mar 27 | 8 – 45 | -10.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 21
Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Dragons | Apr 02 | Sharks | 18.40 |
| 2 | Glasgow vs. Zebre | Apr 02 | Glasgow | 28.80 |
| 3 | Benetton vs. Connacht | Apr 03 | Benetton | 1.70 |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Ulster | Apr 03 | Bulls | 2.90 |
| 5 | Lions vs. Edinburgh | Apr 03 | Edinburgh | -0.20 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Ospreys | Apr 03 | Stormers | 14.00 |
| 7 | Munster vs. Leinster | Apr 03 | Leinster | -0.40 |
| 8 | Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby | Apr 03 | Scarlets | 6.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »