Top 14 Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 6.92 | 6.78 | 0.10 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.40 | 5.42 | 1.00 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.16 | 6.83 | -0.70 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.91 | 5.09 | -0.20 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.91 | 4.15 | 0.80 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 4.87 | 6.13 | -1.30 |
| Montpellier | 3.35 | -0.01 | 3.40 |
| RC Toulonnais | 2.14 | 1.82 | 0.30 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.00 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.91 | 1.20 | -0.30 |
| Section Paloise | -1.43 | -2.25 | 0.80 |
| Brive | -3.08 | -3.19 | 0.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.15 | -2.78 | -0.40 |
| Biarritz | -6.51 | -2.78 | -3.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 146 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 27 | 28 – 12 | 1.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Mar 27 | 19 – 0 | 7.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Biarritz | Mar 27 | 37 – 22 | 16.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 27 | 27 – 22 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Mar 27 | 18 – 31 | 2.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne | Mar 27 | 32 – 22 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Rugby | Mar 28 | 27 – 19 | 7.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Section Paloise | Apr 03 | Biarritz | 1.40 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle | Apr 03 | Bordeaux-Begles | 6.00 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 03 | Castres Olympique | 1.30 |
| 4 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive | Apr 03 | Clermont Auvergne | 14.50 |
| 5 | Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais | Apr 03 | Lyon Rugby | 9.30 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier | Apr 03 | Montpellier | -0.00 |
| 7 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris | Apr 04 | Racing-Metro 92 | 10.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »