NRL Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 16.37 | 19.20 | -2.80 |
| Rabbitohs | 14.35 | 15.81 | -1.50 |
| Panthers | 14.01 | 14.26 | -0.30 |
| Sea Eagles | 7.58 | 10.99 | -3.40 |
| Eels | 3.59 | 2.54 | 1.10 |
| Roosters | 2.24 | 2.23 | 0.00 |
| Sharks | 0.25 | -1.10 | 1.40 |
| Titans | 0.05 | 1.05 | -1.00 |
| Raiders | -2.43 | -1.10 | -1.30 |
| Knights | -3.91 | -6.54 | 2.60 |
| Dragons | -7.36 | -7.99 | 0.60 |
| Warriors | -8.47 | -8.99 | 0.50 |
| Broncos | -8.62 | -8.90 | 0.30 |
| Cowboys | -9.01 | -12.27 | 3.30 |
| Bulldogs | -9.25 | -10.25 | 1.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.40 | -10.94 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Mar 24 | 12 – 36 | -2.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Warriors | Mar 25 | 12 – 16 | 3.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Mar 25 | 28 – 16 | 15.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Knights | Mar 26 | 38 – 20 | 21.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Storm vs. Eels | Mar 26 | 24 – 28 | 18.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Titans | Mar 26 | 24 – 22 | 0.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 27 | 12 – 38 | 7.10 | FALSE |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Mar 27 | 13 – 12 | 22.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 31 | Titans | 14.50 |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Knights | Apr 01 | Sharks | 7.20 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 01 | Panthers | 2.70 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Apr 02 | Warriors | 5.70 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | Apr 02 | Sea Eagles | 13.00 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Roosters | Apr 02 | Roosters | -8.20 |
| 7 | Storm vs. Bulldogs | Apr 03 | Storm | 28.60 |
| 8 | Eels vs. Dragons | Apr 03 | Eels | 14.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Can you please explain to me ,how to read the rates?
3 years ago
Differences in ratings represent the expected difference in the number of points when two teams play each other on neutral ground. If one team is playing at home then the expected difference in points is the difference in ratings plus the home ground advantage.
3 years ago
I also support those team and wish they all have to win …
3 years ago
I definitely agree with the prediction tips that I saw because, my prediction is also same as that one.
3 years ago
the preddiction went all good.
3 years ago