Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6
Team Ratings for Week 6
I have just updated the prediction for the Force vs Brumbies which is to be played in Perth. The locations of the games between these two teams were swapped around because of the difficulty of travel to WA.
I have included a post hoc prediction for the rescheduled Round 2 game between the Chiefs and Moana Pasifika, which hadn’t been decided on when I posted last week. I will try and update later this week if there are cancelled games or rescheduled games because of Covid.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 13.75 | 13.43 | 0.30 |
| Chiefs | 9.05 | 5.56 | 3.50 |
| Blues | 8.93 | 9.26 | -0.30 |
| Hurricanes | 7.95 | 8.28 | -0.30 |
| Highlanders | 4.89 | 6.54 | -1.70 |
| Brumbies | 3.93 | 3.61 | 0.30 |
| Reds | 2.05 | 1.37 | 0.70 |
| Western Force | -4.03 | -4.96 | 0.90 |
| Waratahs | -7.17 | -9.00 | 1.80 |
| Rebels | -8.47 | -5.79 | -2.70 |
| Fijian Drua | -11.08 | -10.00 | -1.10 |
| Moana Pasifika | -11.51 | -10.00 | -1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 25 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika | Feb 25 | 59 – 12 | 16.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Reds | Mar 18 | 16 – 12 | 8.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Western Force | Mar 19 | 18 – 20 | -1.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Rebels | Mar 19 | 24 – 19 | 7.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 6
Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes | Mar 25 | Hurricanes | -14.00 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Fijian Drua | Mar 25 | Rebels | 8.10 |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Blues | Mar 26 | Highlanders | 1.50 |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Mar 26 | Chiefs | 0.80 |
| 5 | Reds vs. Waratahs | Mar 26 | Reds | 14.70 |
| 6 | Western Force vs. Brumbies | Mar 27 | Brumbies | -2.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »