NRL Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
Unfortunately I entered my updating parameter incorrectly when preparing the predictions for the NRL, which I only realised when looking over the predictions for this round. I misplaced the decimal point so the parameter was out by a factor of 10. The predictions for Round 1 were not affected but those for Round 2 are. The updated values for those predictions are below. If you check the posted predictions for Round 2 you will see that there were extreme changes in the ratings from Round 1 to Round 2, which should not happen.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 17.69 | 19.20 | -1.50 |
| Rabbitohs | 14.65 | 15.81 | -1.20 |
| Panthers | 14.29 | 14.26 | 0.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 8.83 | 10.99 | -2.20 |
| Eels | 2.28 | 2.54 | -0.30 |
| Roosters | 1.95 | 2.23 | -0.30 |
| Titans | 0.20 | 1.05 | -0.80 |
| Sharks | -1.04 | -1.10 | 0.10 |
| Raiders | -2.58 | -1.10 | -1.50 |
| Knights | -4.18 | -6.54 | 2.40 |
| Dragons | -6.07 | -7.99 | 1.90 |
| Broncos | -6.76 | -8.90 | 2.10 |
| Warriors | -9.09 | -8.99 | -0.10 |
| Bulldogs | -10.51 | -10.25 | -0.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.77 | -10.94 | 0.20 |
| Cowboys | -10.87 | -12.27 | 1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 17 | 15 – 14 | 7.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Mar 18 | 16 – 20 | -19.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 18 | 26 – 12 | -6.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Warriors | Mar 19 | 20 – 18 | 16.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Eels | Mar 19 | 18 – 16 | -0.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Mar 19 | 26 – 6 | -8.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 20 | 26 – 4 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Broncos | Mar 20 | 10 – 16 | 0.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Mar 24 | Sharks | -2.00 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Warriors | Mar 25 | Wests Tigers | 3.80 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Mar 25 | Rabbitohs | 15.70 |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Knights | Mar 26 | Panthers | 21.50 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Eels | Mar 26 | Storm | 18.40 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Titans | Mar 26 | Raiders | 0.20 |
| 7 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 27 | Broncos | 7.10 |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Mar 27 | Sea Eagles | 22.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Okay what will be the full time score for Raiders and Titans.
3 years ago
Sorry, I don’t do that. I only ever predict the margin. Predicting actual scores is another level of difficulty.
3 years ago
Can you give me your predictions (margin)?
3 years ago
Please simply check the website. I try to post on Tuesdays, in the morning NZ time. Currently I am overseas so my posting time is more variable, but still on a Tuesday if at all possible.
3 years ago
Hi Scott,
i really like that prediction.
3 years ago
NRL tips
3 years ago
I’m doing the same prediction here. Thanks.
3 years ago
I love rugby league and predicting the best
3 years ago