Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games
Team Ratings for Postponed Games
These are predictions for two games which I missed. I am posting them for completeness.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 7.43 | 6.78 | 0.60 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 5.90 | 5.42 | 0.50 |
| Stade Toulousain | 5.60 | 6.83 | -1.20 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 5.26 | 5.09 | 0.20 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.26 | 6.13 | -0.90 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.92 | 4.15 | 0.80 |
| Montpellier | 4.40 | -0.01 | 4.40 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.44 | 0.94 | 0.50 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 1.41 | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| RC Toulonnais | 0.47 | 1.82 | -1.30 |
| Section Paloise | -1.25 | -2.25 | 1.00 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.33 | -2.78 | -0.60 |
| Brive | -3.56 | -3.19 | -0.40 |
| Biarritz | -6.58 | -2.78 | -3.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 136 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. RC Toulonnais | Mar 06 | 17 – 45 | 1.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise | Mar 06 | 16 – 23 | 15.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | Mar 06 | 25 – 9 | 2.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby | Mar 06 | 25 – 16 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | La Rochelle vs. Brive | Mar 06 | 41 – 15 | 16.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Mar 06 | 34 – 13 | -3.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 07 | 23 – 16 | 1.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Postponed Games
Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Mar 13 | Clermont Auvergne | 5.90 |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais | Mar 14 | Montpellier | 10.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »