Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 4.94 | -5.00 | 9.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | 3.40 | -6.14 | 9.50 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.25 | 7.35 | -4.10 |
| Sale Sharks | 2.51 | 4.96 | -2.50 |
| Wasps | 1.39 | 5.66 | -4.30 |
| Gloucester | 1.33 | -1.02 | 2.40 |
| Harlequins | 1.10 | -1.08 | 2.20 |
| Northampton Saints | -0.11 | -2.48 | 2.40 |
| London Irish | -1.58 | -8.05 | 6.50 |
| Bristol | -3.13 | 1.28 | -4.40 |
| Bath | -5.83 | 2.14 | -8.00 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -8.27 | -3.52 | -4.80 |
| Worcester Warriors | -10.61 | -5.71 | -4.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 118 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 13 | 35 – 31 | -11.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish | Mar 13 | 47 – 28 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens | Mar 13 | 21 – 36 | -7.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester | Mar 13 | 26 – 24 | 6.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bristol vs. Harlequins | Mar 14 | 29 – 38 | 1.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Northampton Saints vs. Wasps | Mar 14 | 27 – 22 | 2.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors | Mar 26 | Gloucester | 16.40 |
| 2 | Bath vs. Sale Sharks | Mar 27 | Sale Sharks | -3.80 |
| 3 | London Irish vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 27 | London Irish | 3.00 |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Bristol | Mar 27 | Saracens | 12.60 |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons | Mar 27 | Wasps | 14.20 |
| 6 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 28 | Exeter Chiefs | 4.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »